Air Freight Market Update September 2026

Executive Summary

The air freight market is shifting from a capacity story to a cost story. Over the summer, rates drifted lower as capacity recovered and demand held up better than expected. That trend now faces a new headwind: renewed escalation in the Middle East has pushed fuel costs sharply higher and continues to restrict routings through Gulf hubs. Demand is also diverging. Technology and AI-related cargo keeps key Asian export lanes busy, while e-commerce flows into Europe have reset after the EU's regulatory change. We do not expect a dramatic peak season, but conditions out of Asia will tighten ahead of the holidays, and all-in costs may rise even where headline rates soften. This quarter, securing capacity early matters more than waiting for lower prices. 

Global Economic & Trade Context 

The Middle East conflict escalated again in September. Clashes between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, the precautionary shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline after drone attacks, and Houthi advances at the mouth of the Red Sea have pushed oil back above USD 100 per barrel (Reuters). For airlines, this translates directly into jet fuel costs that are now roughly double last year's level (IATA). 

US trade policy remains a moving target. Chinese goods already face the highest effective US tariff burden of any major trading partner, and a further duty is reportedly on hold pending the outcome of the Trump–Xi summit, with the current trade truce expiring in November. New US import bans on selected Canadian products take effect on 29 September, while the extension of AGOA to 2028 brings welcome certainty for sub-Saharan African exporters. 

Structurally, the EU's removal of its duty-free threshold for low-value parcels on 1 July continues to reshape Asia–Europe flows, with e-commerce volumes from China to Europe sharply lower than a year ago (Aevean). The wider economic backdrop remains supportive: IATA reports solid growth in global trade and continued expansion in manufacturing activity. 

Air Freight Market Analysis

Carrier strategies

Carriers are protecting yield rather than chasing volume. Following the EU duty change, Chinese and other operators withdrew a significant share of freighter capacity from China–Europe, with Air China Cargo among the largest cuts (Rotate), and IATA notes that dedicated freighters are gaining market share. Gulf carriers are rebuilding selectively: Etihad is flying more capacity than a year ago, while Qatar Airways says it is not yet passing higher fuel costs on to customers (Aviation Business ME). Heading into Q4, fuel surcharges are the main lever airlines will use to protect margins. 

Regional Insights - Deep Dive 

North America

• Main trend: AI infrastructure is the main demand engine, with US air imports of servers, network equipment and other data-centre hardware roughly doubling this year (Aevean). North American airlines recorded the strongest demand growth of all regions in July (IATA), and volumes from Asia to the US remain well above last year, led by Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia (WorldACD). 

• Biggest bottleneck: The pressure point is at the border rather than in the air. New import bans on selected Canadian products, stricter US customs checks on importer records, and a possible further China tariff all add compliance risk and landed-cost uncertainty (Dimerco). 

• Impact on rates and flows: Rates from Northeast Asia to North America edged up in August and remain clearly above pre-conflict levels, supported by technology cargo (Xeneta). Outbound US rates are also firm compared with last year's weak, tariff-hit base (TAC Index). 
  
  
• Operational insight: Review importer records and product classifications on Canada-linked flows before the end of September. Allow extra lead time for technology shipments from Taiwan and Korea, where capacity is tight and rates are rising (Dimerco). 

Europe 

• Main trend: Imports from China are stabilising at a lower level after the EU duty change: mainland China volumes are back to last year's level, while Hong Kong remains well below (WorldACD). Major hubs are still growing, with both Amsterdam Schiphol and Frankfurt reporting higher cargo volumes in August. 

• Biggest bottleneck: E-commerce gateways such as Budapest, Liège and Amsterdam have lost a large share of their direct freighter services from China (Rotate). At the same time, capacity via the Gulf hubs into Europe is still well below pre-conflict levels (WorldACD). 

• Impact on rates and flows: Asia–Europe rates continued to ease through August, though more slowly than in July (Xeneta). Transatlantic rates remain lower than before the conflict thanks to ample summer belly capacity, but have started to firm. 

• Operational insight: General cargo space from Asia is available now, but carriers will restore withdrawn freighters only slowly as volumes recover. Additional freighter services, such as Cargojet's new Liège flight, widen transatlantic options. 

Asia 

• Main trend: Technology demand is broad-based across the region, with strong growth in shipments to the US from Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Indonesia (WorldACD). Cathay Cargo continued to grow on semiconductor demand, while Hong Kong airport volumes dipped as exports to Europe softened (Air Cargo News). 

• Biggest bottleneck: Quarter-end shipments and the run-up to China's National Day holiday (1–7 October) are narrowing departure options, especially from China (CH Robinson). Holiday-related swings in Vietnam and Malaysia, and a brief airport closure in Indonesia after a volcanic eruption, underline how quickly local conditions can change. 

• Impact on rates and flows: Spot rates from Asia have risen for three consecutive weeks (WorldACD), and outbound indices from Shanghai and Hong Kong remain well above last year (TAC Index). 

• Operational insight: Tightening shows first as earlier cut-offs and fewer workable flights, not as a sudden rate jump (CH Robinson). Secure pre-holiday space now and monitor each origin individually. 

Middle East 

• Main trend: September brought renewed escalation, including the East-West pipeline shutdown and a missile strike near Riyadh airport that disrupted flights (AP). Gulf carriers continue to rebuild their networks regardless, with Emirates SkyCargo and Etihad steadily restoring and adding capacity. 

• Biggest bottleneck: Capacity through the Gulf hubs remains well below pre-conflict levels, particularly to Europe and Asia (WorldACD). Airspace restrictions over the Gulf remain in place, and several airports in southern Saudi Arabia are closed, although the main southern bypass route through Saudi airspace stays open (OPSGROUP).
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: Rates into the region remain far above pre-conflict levels, especially from South Asia and Europe (Xeneta). Flows are shifting: South Asia–US volumes, led by India and Bangladesh, have grown despite the disruption (WorldACD). 
  
  
• Operational insight: Qatar Airways is absorbing higher fuel costs only for now, so expect surcharges from Gulf carriers to catch up. Confirm onward connections before booking transit cargo and keep an alternative routing ready. 

Africa (including South Africa) 

• Main trend: African airlines recorded the slowest demand growth of all regions in July, as capacity grew faster than demand (IATA). E-commerce platforms are redirecting volumes towards the continent, with shipments from China to Africa rising strongly (Aevean). 

• Biggest bottleneck: Carrier capacity is outpacing demand, while connections to Asia for many African markets still rely on Gulf hubs operating below normal levels. 

• Impact on rates and flows: Volumes out of Africa picked up in mid-September while capacity eased (WorldACD), and rates from Europe to South Africa softened slightly (TAC Index). DHL Express has added a new weekly freighter between Bahrain and Johannesburg (Air Cargo News). 

• Operational insight: The extension of AGOA to the end of 2028 restores planning certainty for sub-Saharan exports to the US. Ethiopian Cargo capacity can now also be booked through the CargoAi online platform. 

South America 

• Main trend: The region remains relatively stable. Its exports are dominated by perishables that have to fly, and its main corridors to North America and Europe do not depend on Gulf hubs (Air Cargo Week). Latin American carriers continued to grow in July, although capacity is expanding faster than demand (IATA). 

• Biggest bottleneck: Exposure is mainly economic – fuel, aircraft availability and insurance costs – but a physical constraint is approaching: runway works at Buenos Aires Ezeiza will severely restrict international capacity from late October to mid-November (The Loadstar). 

• Impact on rates and flows: Public rate data is limited this month; available indicators point to slightly softer rates from the US and Europe into South America (TAC Index). Volumes from Asia to South America continue to grow (Aevean). 

• Operational insight: Short booking lead times on US and Europe to Latin America lanes favour flexible buying for imports. Pre-book or plan alternative gateways now for Argentine cargo moving in late October and early November. 

Operational Insights 

• Fuel surcharges will move before base rates. Check which surcharge applies on the actual flight date, not only at booking. 

• Golden Week pressure is building on China, Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam origins; expect fewer departure options into early October. 

• Transit via Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi remains conditional, so build buffers into transit times. 

• Freighter capacity withdrawn from China–Europe will return slowly, so e-commerce gateways such as Liège and Budapest may firm as volumes recover. 

• New US import bans on Canadian products from 29 September require shipment-level checks on North American distribution flows. 

Market Outlook & Strategic Recommendations 

1–3 month forecast (base case). We expect stable to slightly firmer rates out of Asia through October, driven by Golden Week, technology demand and fuel, but no classic volume-driven peak (The Loadstar; Xeneta). All-in costs carry upside risk. The main swing factors are the outcome of the Trump–Xi summit, any further escalation in the Gulf or Red Sea, and IATA's August figures due at the end of September. 

Recommendations for Logistics Teams 

1. Plan ahead and book early: secure Golden Week space now and Black Friday/Christmas allocations by mid-October.
2. Build flexibility into contracts: short validity periods or index-linked fuel clauses instead of fixed quarterly rates. 
3. Separate base rate, fuel surcharge and risk premium in every quotation for margin transparency. 
4. Monitor US trade policy and world events closely: summit outcome, truce deadline, Canadian bans and Gulf routings. 
5. Pre-agree non-Gulf contingency routings for Asia–Europe and Middle East transit cargo. 
6. Rely on Bertling to keep global supply moving: our network, knowledge and expertise protect your interests and keep cargo flowing. 

Bottom line: Demand is steady, but fuel and conflict now drive cost; secure capacity early and buy on fuel-transparent, flexible terms rather than waiting for a rate collapse. 

Sources: Xeneta, IATA, WorldACD, Air Cargo News, Air Cargo Week, TAC Index, Rotate, Aevean, CH Robinson, Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, EASA (via Expeditors), OPSGROUP, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Dimerco, Fraport, STAT Times, Aviation Business ME, The Loadstar 

Customer advice 

• "Spot rates are falling – why is my quote higher?" Fuel, not capacity, is now the moving part. Ask us to show base rate and surcharge separately. 

• "Should I wait before Golden Week?" For Asia-origin cargo, no. Space tightens first; waiting risks delay more than it saves. 

• "Can I still route via the Gulf?" Yes, with conditions. We confirm onward connections and hold alternatives ready. 

• "Does the Trump–Xi summit change my Q4 plan?" Possibly. We will flag China-origin landed-cost changes as soon as they are confirmed. 

However, it is Bertling's job to keep global supply moving. We apply our network, knowledge, and expertise to protect our clients' interests, find the best solutions and ensure cargo flows—even when fuel costs surge and Gulf routings remain disrupted. Contact your local Bertling office to review your Q4 peak strategy for 2026. 

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