In June, global airfreight volumes stayed steady, but spot rates fell for the first time since April 2024 amid ongoing tariff changes and trade tensions.
Flight cancellations in the Middle East added delays and costs, while the China–US lane saw a notable drop after a brief surge. Regional rate differences persisted, highlighting a mixed market. As tariff truces near expiration, the industry faces continued uncertainty and potential volatility.
Global Airfreight Rates Decline Amid Trade Uncertainty Despite Rising Demand
Global air cargo volumes increased by around 6% year-on-year in May, yet June has seen the first year-on-year decline in spot rates since April 2024. This reflects growing uncertainty in the market despite steady volumes and expanded summer capacity. An initial short-lived rebound in transpacific rates, spurred by easing tariffs and pre-truce frontloading, faded quickly.
The market continues to benefit temporarily from supply chain disruptions and emergency shipments, but this boost may not last. Throughout June, trade policy shifts, ongoing tariff disputes, and new parcel fees in key regions are influencing pricing and demand. As a pivotal month, June’s rate negotiations and volume patterns are likely to shape the airfreight market heading into Q3.
Airspace Disruptions Spread as Airlines Respond to Escalating Conflict
Rising tensions in the Middle East have triggered widespread flight cancellations and rerouting by major airlines from Europe, North America, and Asia. Flights to key hubs including Dubai, Doha, and Riyadh have been suspended, alongside earlier disruptions to Israel, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.
Passenger carriers have adjusted or cancelled services due to security concerns and airspace restrictions, while major cargo operators continue to maintain freight flights. These reroutes are causing longer transit times and higher costs for cargo movements passing through the region, although overall capacity remains largely unaffected.
Flight tracking data highlights significant airspace gaps over the affected zones, underscoring the sector’s caution amid ongoing geopolitical instability.
Post-Tariff Surge Fades as China-US Air Freight Volumes and Rates Dip
Air cargo volumes and spot rates between China, Hong Kong, and the US declined sharply in early June, reversing a brief surge seen in late May. Chargeable weight dropped approximately 10% week-on-week and is nearly 20% lower year-on-year, while spot rates fell 5% week-on-week and remain 17% below last year’s levels.
This short-lived increase was driven by a temporary pause in the US-China tariff dispute, which led to a catch-up of delayed shipments. The subsequent decline indicates this rebound was not structurally sustained. The slowdown on this crucial trade lane contributed notably to a global week-on-week volume drop, compounded by seasonal holidays affecting Asia-Pacific origins.
Despite falling volumes, overall global airfreight rates remained relatively stable, hovering around USD 2.44 per kg.
Diverging Air Freight Rate Movements Shape June Market as Trade Tensions Continue
Throughout June, global airfreight rates showed mixed patterns across major trade lanes amid persistent uncertainty around tariffs and trade policies. The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI) experienced a modest uptick over recent weeks but remains 5–6% below year-ago levels.
Rates from Asian hubs such as Hong Kong and Shanghai trended downward for the month, with significant year-on-year declines reflecting softer demand and tariff impacts. Conversely, routes from Bangkok and Seoul to Europe maintained strong year-on-year performance.
European export lanes varied, with rising rates to China but slight declines to Japan and the US. London Heathrow recorded a notable 24.3% week-on-week rate increase, driven by gains to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the US, contributing to robust year-on-year growth. North American outbound rates remained stable, with minor gains to China and small decreases toward Europe and South America.
This regional variation highlights the complex interplay of market forces amid ongoing trade uncertainties and regulatory changes impacting pricing and demand globally.
Key Trends
- Temporary rebound in transpacific rates due to tariff pauses and shipment frontloading.
- Ongoing supply chain disruptions driving emergency shipments, providing short-term support.
- Mixed rate movements across regions reflecting uneven demand and tariff impacts.
- Increased flight cancellations and reroutes in the Middle East affecting transit times and costs.
- Global airfreight volumes up about 6% year-on-year in May, but spot rates declined in June.
Main Reasons for Bottlenecks
- Trade policy shifts, including tariff disputes and new parcel fees in major markets (US, EU).
- Seasonal holidays in Asia-Pacific region reducing available cargo volumes temporarily.
- Uncertainty and rapid changes in trade regulations disrupting supply chain planning.
- Capacity constraints due to rerouted flights and increased operational complexity.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East causing widespread flight cancellations and airspace restrictions.
- Many Middle Eastern Airspaces closed and flights cancelled.
- Limited Flight Options, increased costs.
Impact on Freight Rates
- June saw the first year-on-year decline in global spot rates since April 2024 despite rising volumes.
- Significant rate drops on key lanes such as China–US, reversing previous tariff-induced spikes.
- Regional differences: declines from Asian hubs like Hong Kong and Shanghai, gains on routes from London Heathrow and some Southeast Asia lanes.
- Rate volatility driven by tariff changes, trade tensions, and shifting demand patterns.
- Cargo cost increases on routes affected by flight reroutes and longer transit times.
Outlook
- Potential short-term demand spikes ahead of renewed trade tensions or tariff changes.
- Ongoing geopolitical conflicts may continue to disrupt airspace and flight operations.
- Freight forwarders and shippers urged to maintain flexibility and monitor trade policy developments closely.
- Longer-term demand likely to be influenced by global economic conditions and evolving supply chain strategies.
- Market expected to remain volatile as tariff truce approaches expiration in July/August.
Customer advice
Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please:
- Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
- Think ahead and book well in advance. Try to plan for 6 months ++.
- Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
- Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.
However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.
