Executive Summary
A sharp Middle East escalation is now a near-term volatility trigger for both ocean and air networks, via (1) Hormuz shipping disruption and insurance withdrawal, and (2) airspace closures/flight suspensions that remove belly and freighter capacity and force re-routings.
Net effect: higher disruption risk, tighter uplift on affected corridors, and faster spot-rate repricing - especially Asia–Europe and lanes relying on Gulf hubs.
Middle East escalation becomes a macro logistics shock variable
- Strait of Hormuz disruption: Reuters reports shipping through Hormuz ground toward a halt with vessels damaged/stranded and ~150 ships anchored, while war-risk coverage is being cancelled effective 5 March, sharply raising costs and uncertainty.
- Container network knock-on: Reuters also reports ~100 container ships (~10% of global container fleet) caught in Hormuz backups, with carriers suspending some Middle East bookings - raising the probability of inventory delays and emergency mode shifts.
- Air-freight implication (high level): increased probability of sea→air conversion for urgent SKUs and project-critical parts, plus cost volatility (fuel/insurance risk premia).
LET US KNOW YOUR OPINION
How do you like our Market Reports? Fill in our survey (it only takes a minute) to share for feedback and gain even better market insights in the future.
Airspace restrictions and service suspensions affecting Gulf and neighbouring airspaces, with named examples (e.g., Lufthansa Cargo and group suspensions; broad avoidance of several regional airspaces) and carrier/route suspensions noted in industry updates.
Why it matters operationally
- Immediate: reduced uplift into/out of the region + longer routings (detours) → tighter day-to-day availability and shorter quote validity.
- Spillover: Asia–Europe flows that rely on Gulf hubs may see schedule disruption, missed connections, and rebooking pressure, which typically tightens spot capacity even if demand is unchanged. (Inference based on reported closures/suspensions.) We are also facing rate increases due to capacity shortage.
Regional Insights – mainly resulting from and impacted by the Middle East Conflict
- Main market trend (February outlook): structurally important hub region; growth existed but capacity dynamics were uneven.
- Update (late February -early March): the region shifted from “hub opportunity” to network disruption epicentre, driven by Hormuz risk and airspace/flight interruptions
- Biggest operational bottleneck:
- Air: airspace closures + carrier suspensions reduce routings and reliability.
- Sea: Hormuz congestion + insurance withdrawal raise lead-time unpredictability.
Impact on freight rates and trade flows (high level):
- Higher likelihood of spot tightening on lanes dependent on Gulf connections (notably Asia–Europe) and for time-critical diversion cargo.
- Increased risk premiums in quotes (validity tightening, rerouting surcharges) as routings shift away from restricted airspace.
- Suspension of technical stopovers in key gulf hubs
- Extended flight routings resulting in increased fuel consumption, higher operational complexity
- Airport congestion at alternate hubs (IST, ATH, CAI, JNB)
- (transportation) Insurance coverages may not be valid anymore due to war-risk clauses.
Air freight news
Market Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
- Base case: global demand growth remains positive (per IATA January), but network volatility rises; expect more corridor-specific tightness and more rapid repricing.
- Risk-up case: If airspace constraints persist and Hormuz risk continues, we should expect: Reduced effective capacity (longer routings, cancellations, missed connections), more sea→air exceptions, upward pressure on premium/short-notice pricing on affected corridors.
Customer advice
Considering the ever-changing market conditions and ongoing conflict in the Middle East, please:
- Review insurance coverage, including war-risk clauses, to ensure adequate protection
- Provide updated shipment forecasts to enable proactive capacity planning and space allocation
- Confirm bookings as early as possible, as rerouting and reduced aircraft rotations are limiting short-notice availability.
And, as usual, we recommend:
- Plan ahead towards end year, as demand is up. This could result in equipment shortage.
- Plan ahead in anticipation on Ramadan 2026 and related capacity constraints.
- Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
- Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
- Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.
However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.
