Executive summary

The global air freight market in April 2026 remains defined by capacity disruption rather than weak structural demand. IATA’s latest monthly cargo release, published on 30 March, showed February global demand up 11.2% year on year and capacity up 8.5%, confirming a firm market before the Middle East escalation materially disrupted flows. Through April, Xeneta, Reuters, and Air Cargo News pointed to a sharp shift: reduced effective capacity, rerouted networks, elevated jet fuel costs, and higher risk premiums pushed rates upward even as March tonnage softened. Air Cargo News reported global spot rates at USD 3.76/kg in week 15, up 37% year on year, while Xeneta said 52% of global volumes moved on spot rates in March, close to pandemic-style short-term buying behavior. Cargo is still moving to and from the Middle East region, but under reduced capacity, rerouted services, and lower schedule reliability.  

We are investigating the fact that European carriers are still cutting their operations into the Gulf region, while non-European carriers are continuing to operate despite capacity shortages. This is also causing a shortage of capacity and leading to higher air freight rates. 

Market summary

IATA’s February market data is the latest official monthly air cargo dataset released inside the requested date window. The more recent March and April operating picture comes from Xeneta, Reuters, and Air Cargo News, which together show that the market has transitioned from a demand-led growth story into a disruption-led supply squeeze.  

Global Economic & Trade Context 

The macro backdrop remains broadly supportive for air freight, but geopolitics has overridden the normal market cycle. IATA said global goods trade rose 5.2% year on year in January, manufacturing PMI reached 53.1, and new export orders hit 51.4, all of which pointed to a constructive trade environment entering March.  

The dominant market disruptor is the Middle East conflict and the resulting airspace and hub instability. Reuters reported on 5 March that the conflict cut global air cargo capacity by 22%, with Asia–Europe cargo capacity through the Middle East down 39%. Reuters then reported on 10 April that air cargo capacity to the Middle East had fallen by more than 50% year on year over the prior two weeks, forcing shippers to consider unusual routings and increasing dependence on whatever secure lift remained available.  

An additional market risk in April is jet fuel availability and pricing. Media coverage increasingly points to the possibility of tighter jet fuel supply in Europe and parts of Asia if disruption to Middle East energy flows persists. Reuters reported on 21 April that the EU imports 30–40% of its jet fuel, with about half of that volume coming from the Middle East and is considering contingency measures. However, the same day Reuters reported that the German government said it was not seeing actual jet fuel shortages, while DHL said it had secured fuel coverage for Europe into May and June, though visibility in Asia was weaker. The right market interpretation is therefore higher fuel cost, tighter planning, and fuel-related risk premia, rather than a confirmed widespread physical shortage. 

Air Freight Market Analysis 

Rates and demand 

The April market is showing a classic disruption profile: 

• Underlying demand is not collapsing, but March volumes softened  

• Rates continue to rise because effective capacity is lower  

• Spot procurement is replacing longer commitments  

• Schedules overstate real market availability  

Xeneta said March global air freight demand fell 3% year on year, while capacity was down 6%, pushing the average global spot rate up to USD 2.86/kg, the highest level since December 2024. Xeneta also said the share of cargo moving on spot rates rose to 52% in March. Air Cargo News reported that global airfreight tonnage fell 4% year on year in March, but spot rates still climbed to USD 3.76/kg in week 15, up 37% year on year. That combination confirms that price formation is being driven primarily by scarcity, rerouting, and operating cost inflation rather than by broad-based demand acceleration. 

Carrier strategies 

Carrier response remains defensive and tactical: 

• Airlines are rerouting and selectively reallocating capacity rather than restoring networks quickly. Xeneta said full recovery in disrupted corridors could take 1–2 months even after a ceasefire.  

• Air Cargo News reported that Cathay Cargo is seeking Asia–Europe mid-point stops to overcome payload and routing constraints linked to the disruption.  

• Air Cargo News also reported that actual available air cargo capacity is lower than published schedules imply, reflecting operational friction and uneven reinstatement.  

• IATA called for temporary suspension of airport slot rules during the Middle East crisis, showing the extent to which carriers want regulatory flexibility to preserve network utility.  

Regional Insights 

North America

• Main trend: Relatively more stable than Europe-bound markets, supported by lower direct dependence on Gulf transit and improving passenger-linked belly capacity on some corridors. IATA’s latest monthly data showed North American cargo demand up 9.4% in February.  

• Biggest bottleneck: Distortion of normal global routings rather than direct regional infrastructure failure. Reuters reported that some shippers are now evaluating unconventional routings via North America.  
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: The North American market is firmer, but less overheated than Asia–Europe.  

• Operational insight: North America should be treated as a relative stability zone, not as a proxy for global conditions.  

Europe

• Main trend: Europe is among the most exposed regions because many Asia flows historically relied on Gulf connectivity. February demand for European carriers was still up 6.9%, but this predates the full April operating shock.  

• Biggest bottleneck: Loss of reliable Middle East transfer options plus mounting concern over jet fuel supply risk.  

• Impact on rates and flows: Europe-bound capacity remains structurally tight, especially from Asia.  

• Operational insight: Prioritize direct lift, protected allotments, and premium-routing discipline.  

Asia

• Main trend: Asia remains the core production base and the region facing the strongest rate pressure. IATA showed Asia-Pacific demand up 13.6% in February.  

• Biggest bottleneck: Payload and routing restrictions into Europe, plus jet fuel and war-risk pass-throughs.  

• Impact on rates and flows: Reuters reported sharp rate inflation on Asia-related corridors, with some lanes seeing increases of up to 70% and Vietnam–Europe long-term rates nearly doubling in the disruption phase.  

• Operational insight: Quote validity should remain short, with active surcharge management.  

Middle East 

• Main trend: The Middle East remains the core disruption node for the global market.  

• Biggest bottleneck: Airspace restrictions, grounded aircraft, insurance concerns, and reduced network confidence.  

• Impact on rates and flows: Capacity to the region has fallen sharply, but cargo is still moving to and from the Middle East region via reduced freighter capacity, rerouted services, and selective alternative hubs. This is a constrained market, not a closed one.  

• Operational insight: Middle East business remains possible, but planning visibility is poor and rate exposure is high.  

South Africa / Africa 

• Main trend: Africa continues to show strong structural demand support, especially in perishables. IATA’s latest monthly data showed African carrier demand up 21.0%, the strongest of any region in February.  

• Biggest bottleneck: Connectivity depth and operating efficiency remain structural limits.  

• Impact on rates and flows: Africa is affected by the same global scarcity and schedule instability, though less directly than Asia–Europe.  

• Operational insight: Best suited to controlled, niche cargo flows rather than broad flexible uplift assumptions.  

South America 

• Main trend: More stable than the major East-West corridors and less directly distorted by Middle East dependency.  

• Biggest bottleneck: Smaller market scale and lower carrier density.  

• Impact on rates and flows: Rate pressure exists, but is milder than on Asia–Europe and Middle East-linked corridors.  

• Operational insight: South America remains comparatively more predictable, especially where dedicated freighter capacity is maintained. This point is an inference from the available source set, which is much more focused on Asia, Europe, and the Middle East than on Latin America specifically.  

Outlook & Recommendations (Next 1–3 Months) 

The short-term outlook remains firm to volatile, with only partial normalization likely through May. Xeneta expects recovery in affected corridors to take one to two months, and Reuters reporting suggests fuel-related supply risks and disrupted route economics may keep the market tighter for longer than a ceasefire headline alone would imply.  

Recommended actions: 

• Use shorter pricing windows and avoid broad annual assumptions in disrupted corridors.  

• Protect space on Asia–Europe and Middle East-linked cargo, and do not rely on published schedules alone.  

• Separate corridor strategy from global strategy; transatlantic, Middle East, and Asia–Europe are behaving very differently.  

• Monitor jet fuel risk as a market amplifier: at present it is a planning and cost issue, but it could become an operational constraint if disruption persists.  

• State clearly in customer communication that cargo continues to move to and from the Middle East, but under reduced capacity, rerouted services, longer transit times, and elevated costs.  

Customer advice 

Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please: 

• Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
• Think ahead and book well in advance. Try to plan for 6 months ++.
• Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
• Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.

However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.

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