Overview

Ongoing regional developments continue to impact logistics networks across the Gulf region.

Restricted Middle East airspace and partially offline hubs have reduced available airfreight capacity, resulting in tighter space conditions, rising rates, increasing fuel surcharges, and longer transit times.

At the same time, the security situation is creating significant disruption to ocean freight services, with carriers implementing booking restrictions, service adjustments, deviations, and additional surcharges, while overall volumes remain impacted by limited acceptance and higher total landed cost. 

This update outlines, in practical terms, what customers should know about the current situation and what to expect across both airfreight and ocean freight services. We will continue monitoring the situation closely and provide further updates as operational conditions evolve. 

Air Freight Situation

1. Capacity Constraints 

• Large portions of the Middle East airspace are closed or restricted and hubs (Dubai/Doha) are partially offline. This has resulted in a significant decrease in available capacity to/from the region.
• Globally there is a reduction of approximately 20%, and a decrease of 40% on key EU and Asia corridors. With less global lift, space tightens resulting in a seller’s market. 

2. Rising Rates 

• Airfreight rates rising, with some lanes up 70%.  With ongoing reduced capacity, strong demand and spiking fuel costs, expect these rate levels to persist, even increase further.  

3. Rising Fuel Surcharges  

• All airlines are implementing FSC increases in varying degrees.  
• Some airlines are seeing this period of volatility as an opportunity to increase market share.  
• Consequently, their FSC increases remain low (e.g. Amerijet increased FSC by $0.06/kg; their highest FSC is to the Caribbean at $0.65/kg) whilst others have been less cavalier (e.g. Lufthansa group has increased their FSC from an already inflated $0.85/kg to $1.10/kg as of 23 March 2026).   

4. Transit time increases 

• With the shutdown of airspace in the region (e.g. Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel) flights are having to be rerouted, resulting in longer transit times, more fuel burn and fewer rotations per aircraft.  
• Shippers are having to pay premiums for express service on an already inflated rate level to obtain the same level of service and transit time previously expected from a standard service level.  
• Furthermore, these re-routings are causing backlogs at the alternate hubs being utilized.  

5. Demand for Air expected to increase further 

• With the disruptions faced by ocean freight, shippers are having to rely on airfreight more often than usual, causing extra demand pressure on an already tight capacity condition.   

Ocean Freight Situation

The security situation affecting access to the Upper Gulf / Arabian Gulf / Persian Gulf continues to create significant disruption to liner services. Carriers have implemented a mix of booking restrictions, service adjustments, deviations to contingency ports, and additional surcharges. While some bookings remain possible for selected ports, overall volumes are clearly impacted by limited acceptance and higher total landed cost. This update explains, in practical terms, what customers should expect, especially regarding final container delivery and additional charges.

1. What can happen to your container: voyage completion vs. deviation

Across multiple carrier advisories, it is clear that shipments to and from the Gulf region may be handled under special circumstances clauses in the carrier’s transport terms. In practice, this can result in:

A) Continuation with delays and changing port rotations:

• Carriers may temporarily hold vessels in safe waters, adjust schedules, omit port calls, or reroute services, which can cause delays and changes to planned discharge ports.

B) Discharge at a contingency port (“diversion”):

• If a planned discharge port cannot be safely or operationally served, carriers may discharge containers at an alternative port. Carriers operational advisory explicitly references contingency measures and states that charges related to cargo handling at contingency ports (including demurrage, detention, storage, handling) are for the account of cargo.

What this means for final delivery:

A) If discharge occurs within the region (Arabian Peninsula / regional hubs)

• Where containers are discharged within the region, onward delivery is often operationally feasible, but the commercial reality remains: additional costs at the contingency port are typically borne by cargo. Carriers explicitly notes contingency-port handling, storage, detention/demurrage and related charges are for cargo account.

B) If discharge occurs outside the region (e.g., India / Sri Lanka / other non-regional ports)

• If containers are discharged outside the region under “End of Voyage” or similar measures, final delivery can become materially more complex and more likely need to be organized under the control of the consignee/shipper.

2. Booking acceptance remains selective

• Booking acceptance into the region varies by carrier, corridor, cargo type and destination. As one example, Maersk has communicated suspensions for specific corridors (e.g., between the India Subcontinent and Upper Gulf markets) while other corridors may remain open.
• In parallel, carriers have introduced additional conditions, contingency approaches, and limitations that may reduce available capacity and increase the probability of rollovers, changes of port rotation and/or contingency discharge decisions.

3. Cost allocation and what customers should plan for

Based on the language used by carriers in their advisories, customers should be prepared for the following categories of additional cost, depending on routing and discharge outcome:

• Carrier surcharges (war risk / emergency conflict / emergency freight increases / deviation-related surcharges)
• Contingency port charges (handling, storage, detention/demurrage exposure, ancillary port charges)
• Inland onward movement from a contingency port (including potential rebooking if the original port cannot be served)
• Extended transit time and inventory carrying cost due to rerouting and delays (as services and port calls change at short notice)

  

 

 

 

   

  

 

 

 

   

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4. What we recommend customers do now (to reduce disruption)

To support planning and reduce the probability of costly exceptions, we recommend:

1. Confirm destination port acceptance before booking (by carrier and commodity), and consider flexibility on discharge options where possible.
2. Budget for additional carrier surcharges currently in effect and note that some may apply to cargo already booked or afloat (depending on the carrier notice).
3. Prepare for contingency discharge scenarios and clarify who will coordinate and finance onward movement if the planned port cannot be served (including local pickup obligations under “End of Voyage” conditions).
4. Minimize dwell time risk: ensure consignee readiness for rapid release and collection if cargo is discharged unexpectedly at a contingency port (especially important where “local recovery” applies).

CONTACT US

We will continue monitoring the situation closely and provide further updates as operational conditions evolve.

Please contact our experts for further advice. We will keep you closely informed.

   

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