Golden Week in China 2026
With China’s Golden Week underway, we would like to share a brief update on the current ocean freight market and some of the developments we expect in the weeks ahead.
Compared with previous years, the capacity situation around Golden Week is developing differently. Particularly on the Asia–Europe trade, we are seeing comparatively high levels of capacity in the market during early October, while the number of announced blank sailings remains relatively limited.
This picture is expected to change as we move towards the second half and end of October. Carriers are increasingly adjusting available capacity to the lower post-Golden Week demand environment, which may result in tighter space conditions on individual services and departures.
At the same time, the gradual return of vessels to the Suez Canal is adding another layer of complexity to the Asia–Europe network. While an increasing number of services and voyages are returning to the Suez routing, other vessels continue to sail via the Cape of Good Hope. During this transition, transit times and routings can therefore differ considerably depending on the individual service and voyage.
From a pricing perspective, the picture remains very different across the main trades.
China to North America
Rate levels remain high, particularly compared with the levels seen earlier this year. Following the strong pre-Golden Week market, some easing may develop as demand normalizes during October. However, given the still elevated starting point as well as ongoing capacity and operational constraints, any reduction should be viewed as a correction from high levels rather than a return to a low-rate environment.
China to South America
The market has already seen a degree of rate correction, particularly into parts of the West Coast South America trade. Going forward, we expect a more differentiated development, depending on destination, capacity and carrier strategy. East Coast South America in particular remains comparatively firmer, while carriers are also starting to test rate restoration measures on selected trades.
China to Europe
Asia–Europe rates have continued to soften during September and into the Golden Week period, supported by comparatively high available capacity and the gradual return of vessels to the Suez routing.
Looking towards the second half of October and November, carriers are expected to increasingly focus on capacity management and rate restoration. We therefore see the potential for upward rate pressure from the current levels. Whether announced increases can be sustained will, however, depend on post-Golden Week demand and the extent to which carriers reduce available capacity.
Overall, October is likely to remain a transitional and volatile month. High capacity at the beginning of the month, subsequent capacity adjustments and the ongoing shift between Cape and Suez routings are creating a market where conditions can change relatively quickly.
We therefore recommend maintaining flexibility in shipment planning and reviewing space and rate developments closely for shipments scheduled towards the end of October and into November.
We will continue to monitor the market and keep you informed of any significant developments.