Air Freight Market Update October 2026

Executive Summary

Air freight enters the year-end peak firmer than expected. After a short Golden Week pause, Asian exports rebounded and prices turned upwards again. The driver is not a broad consumer peak but sustained demand for AI servers, chips and data-centre equipment across the Pacific, while e-commerce into Europe keeps shrinking under the new EU customs regime. Jet fuel, still far above last year, sets the floor for rates. In the Middle East, attacks on Saudi airports added a new risk to an already reduced Gulf network. For shippers: secure high-tech and transpacific capacity now, expect costs to stay elevated into the new year, and keep routings and contracts flexible. 

Global Economic & Trade Context 

The Iran war continues to shape air logistics. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, with October the busiest month for attacks on shipping since March (UKMTO via CBS News). A second front opened in Saudi Arabia, where Houthi strikes on Riyadh, Abha and other airports between 6 and 12 October closed King Khalid International (Reuters, Al Jazeera). 

The US–China tariff truce now runs to 10 January 2027; tariff cuts on goods listed by the new Board of Trade have no implementation date yet (Bloomberg, Dimerco). In Europe, a €2 per-item handling fee on non-EU e-commerce imports takes effect on 1 November, on top of the flat duty in force since July (Council of the EU). Manufacturing remains supportive, with export-order indicators at a five-year high (IATA). 

Energy is the main cost driver. Brent rose to around USD 110 per barrel in mid-October, its highest since May (Reuters via MercoPress), and jet fuel has more than doubled year-on-year, with yields not keeping pace (IATA). 

Air Freight Market Analysis

Carrier strategies

With winter schedules from 25 October, airlines are steering freighters to the lanes that pay. Lufthansa Cargo adds Asian, transpacific and North America freighter capacity, while Air Canada Cargo, JAL and Cathay Cargo add transatlantic, Latin American and transpacific options as belly space shrinks (Lufthansa Cargo, The Loadstar). Qatar Airways Cargo has added freighters to Copenhagen, Warsaw, New York and Dallas (Qatar Airways Cargo). Freighter capacity is growing faster than bellyhold (WorldACD). Fuel surcharges are revised more often JAL twice a month, Air Canada Cargo from 26 October—because yields lag fuel costs (JAL Cargo, Air Canada Cargo, IATA).

Regional Insights - Deep Dive 

North America

• Main trend: North American carriers posted the strongest demand growth of all regions in September, and Asia–North America was the fastest-growing lane for an eighth month (IATA). AI servers, chips and data-centre equipment carry import demand (TAC Index, Dimerco).

• Biggest bottleneck: Peak space for high-tech cargo: some AI hyperscalers had not yet booked, which could push rates sharply higher (TAC Index via The Loadstar). Ocean congestion is also shifting cargo to air (Dimerco).

• Impact on rates and flows: Asia–US rates are about two-fifths above last year and rose again after Golden Week (WorldACD). Europe–North America spot rates are still below late-February levels, but the gap is narrowing as summer belly capacity leaves (Xeneta).
  
  
• Operational insight:CBP is voiding importer-of-record numbers with incomplete company details, and IEEPA tariff refunds opened on 6 October under narrow eligibility (Dimerco). Polysilicon Section 232 duties start on 4 December, with anti-stockpiling monitoring already active (US Commerce/BIS).

Europe 

• Main trend: Europe runs at two speeds: Frankfurt grew in September and Liège exports are strong (Fraport, Liège Airport), while e-commerce parcels into Liège have fallen by around 42% since the July customs change (Liège Airport).

• Biggest bottleneck: From 1 November the €2 per-item handling fee applies on top of the €3 duty, and product identifiers become mandatory for e-commerce declarations (Council of the EU, European Commission).

• Impact on rates and flows: Asia Pacific tonnage to Europe is down by about a sixth year-on-year, Hong Kong by around a third, yet rates stay well above last year on fuel (WorldACD). European carriers have the highest load factor of all regions after cutting capacity (IATA).

• Operational insight: Winter schedules cut belly space on parts of the transatlantic, and allocations are being renegotiated (The Loadstar). The new fee is non-refundable even on returns (European Commission).

Asia 

• Main trend: Exports rebounded quickly after Golden Week, led by South Korea, China and Hong Kong (WorldACD). Cathay Cargo carried 14% more cargo in September on semiconductor and Southeast Asian demand, and HKIA grew on transhipment (Cathay, Airport Authority Hong Kong).

• Biggest bottleneck: Typhoon Champi shut much of Taiwan on 23 October, cancelling dozens of cargo flights at Taoyuan, the key AI-hardware gateway (Focus Taiwan/CNA). Northeast Asia–US capacity remains tight (Dimerco).

• Impact on rates and flows: Asia-origin spot rates dipped during the holiday, then rose again in the third week of October (WorldACD). Japan-origin fuel surcharges were raised in October (JAL Cargo).

• Operational insight: Lunar New Year falls on 6 February 2027, so the pre-holiday rush will overlap with the tail of peak season (Bertling assessment). Book Taiwan and Korea departures early with weather buffers.

Middle East 

• Main trend: Middle Eastern carriers had the weakest demand growth of all regions in September despite adding capacity; Europe–Middle East and Middle East–Asia traffic contracted for a seventh month (IATA).

• Biggest bottleneck: Riyadh's King Khalid airport closed from 10 October; national carriers resumed on 25 October, but the Houthis still call it a target and several foreign airlines extended suspensions (Reuters, Al Jazeera). Gulf capacity is around a fifth below pre-war levels (WorldACD).
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: Rates from the Middle East and South Asia show the strongest annual rise of any region, about three-fifths (WorldACD). India and Bangladesh flows to the US are surging, while volumes to Europe fall (WorldACD).
  
  
• Operational insight: Emirates SkyCargo suspended Saudi services in early October and still restricts Class 1 dangerous goods (Expeditors). EASA's Middle East information note ran to 31 October; check for renewal (EASA).

Africa (including South Africa) 

• Main trend: African airlines grew demand in September while capacity shrank, lifting load factors; Africa–Asia traffic returned to growth (IATA).

• Biggest bottleneck: Limited public rate and airport data this month, including for Johannesburg. Africa-origin pricing was volatile, jumping in early October before easing as capacity fell (WorldACD).

• Impact on rates and flows: Rates from Africa remain roughly a quarter above last year (WorldACD). Gulf hub disruption continues to affect Africa–Asia connections via the Middle East (Bertling assessment).

• Operational insight: Ethiopian Airlines' order for ten Boeing freighters strengthens Africa's long-term capacity but adds nothing this peak (Ethiopian Airlines). AGOA duty-free access was extended in September's US funding bill; confirm eligibility before shipping (US Congress).

South America 

• Main trend: Latin American carriers grew demand in September, but capacity grew faster, leaving the lowest load factor of all regions (IATA). Chilean cherry exports are forecast to rise strongly; first air shipments reached Shanghai on 17–18 October (Frutas de Chile/USDA).

• Biggest bottleneck: Runway works at Buenos Aires Ezeiza restrict international operations from 25 October to 11 November (IATA Americas Focus, The Loadstar).

• Impact on rates and flows: Rates from Central and South America rose only modestly year-on-year, far below the global increase, and volumes dipped around the 12 October holidays (WorldACD).

• Operational insight: The peak cherry harvest runs mid-November to mid-December, tightening perishables capacity to Asia (FreshPlaza/Frutas de Chile). New Air Canada Cargo freighters to Monterrey and Panama add regional options (The Loadstar).

Operational Insights 

• Transpacific peak: Confirm high-tech allocations now; late hyperscaler bookings could tighten space (TAC Index). 
• Fuel surcharges: Some carriers reset surcharges twice a month; check the level valid on the AWB date (JAL Cargo).
• Winter schedules: Belly capacity is lower on some transatlantic routes; reconfirm block space (The Loadstar). 
• Saudi Arabia: Plan for limited Riyadh capacity; consider Jeddah, Dammam or road feeders (Bertling assessment).
• EU e-commerce: The €2 handling fee and mandatory product identifiers apply from 1 November (European Commission).

Market Outlook & Strategic Recommendations 

Base case (Bertling assessment): rates stay firm to rising through November and December, led by the transpacific, followed by a pre-Lunar New Year rush in January; Asia–Europe volumes stay soft but fuel keeps rates high. The main swing factors are the Iran conflict and Hormuz, Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, jet fuel, the 10 January expiry of the US–China truce, and how late AI hyperscalers book their peak capacity. 

Recommendations for Logistics Teams 

1. Plan ahead and book early: secure transpacific and Taiwan/Korea capacity for November–December and Lunar New Year. 
2. Build flexibility into contracts with short validity windows and index-linked fuel clauses. 
3. Separate base rate, fuel surcharge and war-risk premium in every quotation for margin transparency. 
4. Prepare EU e-commerce flows for the €2 handling fee and new data requirements. 
5. Monitor US trade policy and world events closely, especially the truce deadline and Middle East airspace.
6. Rely on Bertling to keep global supply moving, through its network, knowledge and expertise

Bottom line: Peak season is real but narrow—tech cargo and fuel costs keep air freight expensive, so book early and keep every contract flexible.

Sources: Xeneta, IATA, WorldACD, Air Cargo News, Air Cargo Week, TAC Index/Baltic Exchange, The Loadstar, Dimerco, Expeditors, Fraport, Airport Authority Hong Kong, Liège Airport, Cathay, Lufthansa Cargo, Qatar Airways Cargo, Air Canada Cargo, JAL Cargo, Ethiopian Airlines, Council of the EU/European Commission, White House/USTR, EASA, Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, CBS News, US Commerce/BIS, US Congress, Focus Taiwan (CNA), FreshPlaza/Frutas de Chile/USDA, IATA Americas Focus, MercoPress

Customer advice 

• “Is it too late to get transpacific capacity for the peak?” No, but space is tightening. Book now, and accept slightly longer routings if direct flights are full. 
• “Should we still ship into Riyadh?” Yes, with care. Use national carriers or alternative Saudi gateways and build in time for possible closures. 
• “What does the new EU €2 fee mean for our webshop?” Each item now carries €2 on top of the €3 duty. Update your landed costs and product data before shipping. 
• “When should we book for Lunar New Year?” Before mid-December. Lunar New Year is on 6 February 2027, and the rush will start early. 

However, it is Bertling's job to keep global supply moving. We apply our network, knowledge, and expertise to protect our clients' interests, find the best solutions and ensure cargo flows—even when fuel costs, regional conflict and a tech-driven peak pull capacity in different directions. Contact your local Bertling office to review your Q1 strategy for 2027. 

find the best solutions and ensure cargo flows—even when fuel costs surge and Gulf routings remain disrupted. Contact your local Bertling office to review your Q4 peak strategy for 2026. 

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