The global air freight market is undergoing a major realignment driven by trade policy rather than traditional economic factors. Despite a cooling global economy, air cargo volumes grew 5% year-over-year in August, creating a disconnect between economic forecasts and actual demand.
Air freight rates remain stable but face potential increases due to continued demand weakness and volatile tariffs. Asia-Pacific continues to be a strong driver of demand, but trade policy uncertainty, especially related to potential U.S. tariffs, is a major concern for the industry, influencing shipping volumes and supply chain strategies.
Key Trends
Policy Disruptions:
- Global removal of de minimis exemption for low-value e-commerce (29 August) caused a 50% decline in China-US e-commerce shipments
- Ongoing US tariff actions continue to reshape trade flows
- Legal uncertainty remains, with federal appeals court ruling certain tariffs illegal but leaving them in place
Capacity Redeployment:
- FedEx cut transpacific freighter capacity by 25% year-over-year
- Overall transpacific capacity fell 12% in August
- Carriers shifting assets from transpacific to Asia-Europe routes
Main Reasons for Bottlenecks
- Southeast Asian transhipment hubs (Bangkok, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur) experiencing congestion with delays up to 12 days
- Aircraft manufacturing delays limiting capacity expansion
- Cybersecurity attacks in many airports cause security concerns and delays
- Rising cargo theft concerns
- Golden Week in China from 1-7 October 2025 needs to be considered when planning air freight operations. Read our guidance: https://www.bertling.com/news-pool/holiday/chinese-golden-week-1-to-7-october-2025/
Impact on Freight Rates
- Asia-Europe: Volumes surged 11% (China-Europe) with 13.5% gain in July
- Southeast Asia: Vietnam Airlines increased cargo capacity by 95% as manufacturing shifts from China
- Transpacific: China/Hong Kong to US volumes down 5%
- Transatlantic: US-EU exports dropped 3.4% in Q2; capacity cut ~4%
- Global indices down 6-7% year-over-year, but regional variation is extreme
- Spot market now dominates, accounting for over two-thirds of transpacific traffic
- Asia outbound rates showing modest strength; Europe outbound rates falling sharply (Frankfurt -9.6%, London -8.8% weekly)
Outlook
- IATA projects cargo revenues declining 4.7% to $142 billion (revised down from $157 billion forecast)
- Lower jet fuel costs ($87/barrel vs. $99 in 2024) providing crucial profitability cushion
- Earlier demand pull-forward satisfying holiday inventory needs
- Structural loss of e-commerce volumes
- Any pressure concentrated on Asia-Europe and Southeast Asia routes rather than global phenomenon
Customer advice
Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please:
- Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
- Think ahead and book well in advance. Try to plan for 6 months ++.
- Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
- Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.
However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.
