As the global air freight market enters Q4, demand has cooled after a strong summer, slowing growth to 3% YoY in September and tempering peak-season expectations. Bottlenecks include the US government shutdown, Typhoon Ragasa and Golden Week in Asia, China–Europe rail disruptions, and European port strikes.
Freight rates are diverging by corridor: Transpacific rates spiked due to US–China trade tensions, Asia–Europe volumes grew steadily, Transatlantic demand remains soft, and emerging lanes like Southeast Asia and India–North America are rising with semiconductor and AI exports.
Looking ahead, the market will remain volatile, with lane-specific spikes likely. Shippers are favoring short-term contracts and a flexible, data-driven approach to secure capacity and navigate uncertainty.
Key Trends
- Global air freight enters Q4 with volatility and regional divergence.
- Summer demand from frontloading has cooled, slowing growth to +3% YoY in September.
- Peak season expectations tempered, though some lanes show sharp rate spikes.
Main Reasons for Bottlenecks
- US Government Shutdown: air traffic controller shortages causing delays.
- Typhoon Ragasa & Golden Week: disrupted Asia-Pacific operations.
- China–Europe Rail Blockages: pushing urgent cargo to air freight.
- European Port Strikes: affecting Rotterdam and Antwerp, straining Asia–Europe trade.
Impact on Freight Rates
- Transpacific: rates spiked from $5.00/kg to $6.50/kg due to trade tensions.
- Asia–Europe: volumes up 4%, boosted by e-commerce exports.
- Transatlantic: soft demand, but winter capacity cuts may support rates.
- Emerging Lanes: Southeast Asia and India–North America growing with semiconductor/AI exports.
Outlook
- Q4 will remain volatile, with lane-specific rate spikes.
- Shippers favor shorter, 6-month contracts for flexibility.
- Recommendation: adopt data-driven, agile strategies and secure capacity on strengthening corridors.
Customer advice
Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please:
- Plan ahead towards end year, as demand is up. This could result in equipment shortage.
- Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
- Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
- Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.
However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.
