Q4 2025 marks one of the most turbulent periods for global air freight, as peak-season demand collided with major regulatory, political, and operational disruptions. Despite these pressures, global air cargo demand continued its 16-month growth streak, though the environment became significantly more volatile.

Key Trends 

• Global demand remains strong, with Cargo Tonne-Kilometres (CTKs) up 8.2% YoY in November - driven mainly by Asia-based e-commerce.
• Trade slowdown signals emerge: manufacturing output is expanding, but new export orders remain weak, indicating softening global trade.
• Jet fuel prices fell 22% YoY, helping carriers absorb disruptions.
• Load factors hit 63%, the highest in over 30 months, due to constrained effective capacity.

The EU also moves to eliminate its de minimis threshold by 2026, signalling global tightening of e-commerce rules.

Operational Crisis: MD-11 Grounding

A fatal UPS MD-11 crash led the FAA to ground all MD-11 freighters. This removed a major portion of heavy-lift capacity at the start of peak season. Integrators scrambled for leased aircraft, which drove charter rates sharply higher.

Impact on Freight Rates - Surcharges Surge

FedEx and UPS imposed some of the highest peak surcharges in a decade, e.g.: FedEx oversize fee: $108.50/package; UPS large package surcharge: $107/package. These charges effectively set a price floor for the wider air cargo market.

• Asia-Pacific: Intra-Asia volumes up 21% from regionalized manufacturing flows. Tech exports (especially semiconductors) fuel demand. Spot rates reach multi-month highs with a rise of 2% on spot rates China-US, +5% Hongkong-US and 11% Japan to US.
• North America: Export weakness and capacity shortages due to flight cuts.

Increased belly capacity has generally eased constraints, but selective flight cuts and seasonal imbalances still create localized shortages, especially on export-heavy corridors

• Europe: Transatlantic volumes fall 6%, signaling industrial slowdown.

Besides a moderate overall European growth, European-Asia lanes are stronger compared to weaker European-North America lanes. European manufacturers are under pressure contributing to reduced long-haul export demand

• Middle East: Even though the Ongoing Conflict reduces activity in Iran/Syria/Iraq middle eastern region signs overall + 5,7% YoY demand growth with Dubai, Abu Dhabi benefitting from Middle-East – Asia and Middle East – Europe growth as well as rerouted flows and Red Sea instability.
• Africa: 12% YoY rate increase driven by a perishables boom and capacity decline, caused by reduced capacities into and out of certain African markets

Carrier Strategy Shifts

Carriers realign networks toward high-yield markets:

• Lufthansa adds FRA–SGN–LAX to capture transpacific tech cargo.
• Cathay launches HKG–DFW and strengthens winter resilience plans.
• Gulf carriers (Etihad, Qatar) expand African and UK perishables networks.

Outlook

Despite extreme disruptions - shutdown, aircraft grounding, and sweeping trade rule changes - the air cargo industry remained resilient. But the complexity and cost of operating in this environment are rising sharply.

Key long-term themes for 2026 are:

1. Tariff-engineered supply chains via Mexico/Canada become permanent.
2. Digital cargo compliance becomes mandatory as customs scrutiny tightens.
3. Regional decoupling widens - Transatlantic weak, Asia/Africa strong.
4. Reliability costs rise - peak surcharges will normalize at higher levels.

Main Reasons for Bottlenecks

• S. Government Shutdown: Longest shutdown in U.S. history caused severe FAA staffing shortages. FAA ordered flight reductions at 40 airports, eliminating significant passenger belly capacity. Operational backlogs continued even after shutdown ended in mid-November.
• Abolition of the U.S. De Minimis Rule: S. ended duty-free treatment of sub-$800 Chinese e-commerce imports. This resulted in a collapse of China–U.S. small-parcel air volumes, a shift to ocean + bonded warehousing in Mexico/Canada and an increased CBP enforcement on vague cargo descriptions, slowing import processing.

US Operational Crisis: MD-11 Grounding

A fatal UPS MD-11 crash led the FAA to ground all MD-11 freighters. This removed a major portion of heavy-lift capacity at the start of peak season on the US market. Integrators scrambled for leased aircraft, which drove charter rates sharply higher. From an international point of view the MD-11 grounding is not expected to hit the global airfreight capacities. (Source: MD-11F grounding minimal impact international cargo capacity domestic operations analysis | Air Cargo News)

Customer advice 

Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please: 

• Plan ahead towards end year, as demand is up. This could result in equipment shortage.
• Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
• Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
• Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.

However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.

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