In May 2025, global airfreight faced disruption after the U.S. removed the de minimis threshold for low-value imports from China. Volumes from China to the U.S. dropped 27% YoY, pushing global average rates down. In contrast, spot rates from Hong Kong rebounded mid-month due to temporary tariff relief and tighter capacity.
These rapid changes in tariffs and trade regulations have intensified supply chain complexity. Shippers and logistics providers now face greater uncertainty around costs, transit times, and route reliability. As a result, freight forwarders have become increasingly critical - offering expertise in customs compliance, alternative routing, and agile capacity planning.
The market remains volatile, and success will depend on the ability to adapt quickly. Strategic partnerships and innovative logistics solutions are essential to maintaining resilience and meeting shifting customer expectations in this dynamic environment.
Impact of U.S. 'De Minimis' Policy Changes on Air Cargo
On May 7, 2025, the U.S. government removed the de minimis threshold for low-value shipments from China - a move expected to significantly disrupt e-commerce airfreight flows. As anticipated, volumes from China to the U.S. declined sharply, with a 10% week-on-week drop and a 27% decrease compared to the same period last year. Traditional airfreight markets have not compensated for the loss, and airlines are beginning to adjust their networks and capacity allocations, potentially shifting focus to other trade lanes.
Hong Kong to US Air Cargo Spot Rates Climb Following US Tariff Reductions and Capacity Adjustments
Spot air cargo rates from Hong Kong to the US have risen this week, climbing above $4.50 per kilogram after a decline earlier in the month due to US-imposed tariffs on e-commerce imports.
The recent increase follows the US decision to reduce tariffs on e-commerce goods and lower the overall tariff rate to 30% for a 90-day period, prompting shippers to accelerate cargo movement to benefit from the reduced duties. At the same time, carriers have cut freighter capacity on the transpacific route, tightening supply amid rising demand.
Despite these recent increases, current rates remain below the peak levels seen in late March and early April, when spot rates reached $5.30–$5.40 per kilogram as shippers front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff hikes. Data also show a decline in airfreight volumes from China and Hong Kong to the US in early May, reflecting the fluctuating market dynamics. Overall, the market continues to adjust in response to tariff changes, capacity shifts, and evolving demand patterns.
The Critical Role of US Freight Forwarders Amid Trade Uncertainty
Amid growing trade uncertainty and shifting tariff policies—like the recent suspension of the de minimis exemption for low-value goods from China and Hong Kong—US freight forwarders have become increasingly vital. They help businesses, particularly SMEs, navigate complex regulatory changes, adapt shipping strategies, and maintain supply chain continuity. With their expertise and flexibility, forwarders are key to minimizing disruption and ensuring compliance in a volatile trade environment.
Key Trends
- Tariff Volatility: A temporary 90-day tariff reduction has led to a surge in demand as shippers rush to benefit before duties increase again.
- Capacity Shifts: Airlines are adjusting networks and reducing transpacific freighter capacity in response to falling demand and changing trade flows.
- Rate Fluctuations: Spot rates are climbing again after dropping earlier in May, driven by increased demand and reduced capacity.
- Role of Freight Forwarders: U.S. forwarders are playing a key role in helping shippers adapt to policy changes and maintain logistics continuity.
- Regulatory Changes: Removal of the U.S. de minimis threshold for shipments from China is significantly disrupting e-commerce airfreight volumes.
Main Reasons for Bottlenecks
- Capacity cuts by carriers on major trade lanes like China/Hong Kong–U.S.
- High demand surges in narrow windows due to temporary tariff changes.
- Regulatory complexity causes delays in customs clearance, especially for non-postal shipments.
- Sudden drop in e-commerce volumes due to the de minimis policy change.
Impact on Freight Rates
- Rates from Hong Kong to the U.S. rose above $4.50/kg after dipping earlier in May.
- Still below the peak ($5.30–$5.40/kg) seen in March/April during pre-tariff hike rush.
- Global average airfreight rates dropped to $2.34/kg in early May due to lower demand and capacity adjustments.
Outlook
- Short-term: Continued volatility expected, driven by changing U.S.–China trade policy and shifting sourcing strategies.
- Mid-term: Airlines likely to further rebalance capacity across regions; traditional airfreight segments may stabilize as e-commerce adjusts.
- Forwarders: Will remain essential in helping shippers navigate customs, tariffs, and network shifts.
Customer advice
Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please:
- Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
- Think ahead and book well in advance. Try to plan for 6 months ++.
- Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
- Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.
However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.
