The global air freight market enters 2026 with unexpected momentum but significant operational bruising. Contrasting with earlier forecasts of a muted year-end, December 2025 delivered a powerful "peak of peaks," with global demand surging +11% year-on-year, marking the 14th consecutive month of double-digit growth.
However, this volume boom collided with severe late-December operational disruptions. A "bomb cyclone" winter storm in the US, coordinated strikes across Europe and harsh winter weather particularly in Northern Europe created a chaotic finish to the year and, grounding thousands of flights and displacing critical cargo capacity. Disruptions caused by severe weather conditions in Europe continue.
As the industry pivots to Q1 2026, the narrative shifts from raw demand growth to regulatory complexity and resilience. The implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) on 1 January 2026, has introduced immediate compliance hurdles. While forecasts for 2026 project a moderation in demand growth to the 3-6% range, the immediate short-term outlook is defined by a scramble to clear storm-related backlogs before the Chinese New Year shutdown.
Key Trends
- Dec 2025 demand surged +11% YoY, marking 14 consecutive months of double-digit growth.
- Growth driven by AI hardware shipments and strong cross-border e-commerce, not just tariff front-loading.
- Severe late-December disruptions (US winter storm + European strikes) grounded flights and displaced capacity, creating Q1 2026 backlogs.
- 2026 demand growth forecast moderates to 3–6%.
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Impact on Freight Rates
- Capacity +2% vs demand +11% in December → tight market.
- Load factor: 62% (+3pp YoY).
- Global spot rate: $2.99/kg (+15% YoY) with key lanes being Europe → North America: $3.27/kg (+21% MoM), China → US: Down 9% from peak, but still historically high, NE Asia → Europe: $5.28/kg (+4% MoM), driven by Red Sea diversions.
Bottlenecks & Disruptions
- EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) effective Jan 1, 2026: New due-diligence and “Y-Code” documentation causing immediate friction and EU gateway bottlenecks.
- Freighter capacity constrained by Boeing/Airbus delivery delays.
- Airlines extending use of older freighters (avg. age ~20 years) and focusing on high-yield Asia–US/EU lanes.
- Operational Disruptions (Late Dec 2025) caused by US “Bomb Cyclone” (Dec 27–29) lead to 1,500+ flight cancellations, which also caused a major impact on Memphis (FedEx) and Louisville (UPS) → parcel and cargo delay lasting weeks. In Europe (Dec 29) there were 1,700+ delays, 82 cancellations at AMS, LHR, CDG. Belly cargo stranded; transatlantic rates remain elevated into January.
Regional Bottlenecks
- North America: Clearing storm backlogs; rates elevated until mid-January.
- Europe: EUDR compliance delays + ongoing labor unrest; shippers diverting to secondary hubs.
- Asia-Pacific: Strong pre-Lunar New Year rush; tight capacity for high-tech exports (AI, semiconductors).
- Middle East: Profitability leader; sea-air volumes strong as Red Sea crisis continues.
Outlook
- January: Elevated rates due to storm recovery + pre-CNY demand.
- February: Brief CNY dip, then quick rebound.
- Q1 demand growth: ~3–4%, with capacity as the main constraint.
Customer advice
Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please:
- Plan ahead towards end year, as demand is up. This could result in equipment shortage.
- Plan ahead in anticipation on CNY and Ramadan 2026 and related capacity constraints.
- Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
- Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
- Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.
However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.
