Executive summary

The global air freight market in June 2026 has settled into an elevated plateau, defined by the aftermath of the Middle East conflict rather than by weak demand. After spot rates jumped to USD 3.40/kg in May, up 41% year on year – just below a three-year high – WorldACD shows rates broadly flat through mid-June at USD 3.23/kg, up 34% year on year. The pricing peak appears to have passed: Xeneta's long-term rates topped out at the end of April. IATA's latest official month, April, showed demand up 4.0% year on year against capacity down 0.4%, a tight balance carried by freighters. (Xeneta, WorldACD, IATA) 

Three forces dominate: the US–Israel–Iran war and its fragile 60-day ceasefire, signed on 17 June, which gutted Gulf hub capacity but is now recovering quickly; semiconductor and AI demand driving transpacific lanes to near-full load factors; and a stalled e-commerce engine ahead of the EU's 1 July de-minimis change. Jet fuel has eased from its April spike above USD 200/bbl but remains structurally high. Expect a softer-than-usual summer, with corridor-specific volatility rather than a broad correction.

Market summary

Note: IATA April is the latest official monthly cargo dataset (released 28 May); May IATA data is due around end-June. The more recent operating picture comes from Xeneta, WorldACD and Air Cargo News. Xeneta/WorldACD figures are spot or full-market rates, distinct from IATA's official demand/capacity.

Global Economic & Trade Context

The macro backdrop remains broadly supportive, but geopolitics still overrides the normal cycle. The dominant disruptor is the Middle East conflict, which removed roughly 12–13% of global air freight capacity at its peak through reduced Gulf operations and closed airspace.

Jet fuel is the key amplifier. Prices spiked above USD 200/bbl in mid-April after the Hormuz disruption, then eased to USD 119.17/bbl in the week of 8 June, down 14.2% week on week. IATA's June outlook nonetheless forecasts a 2026 average near USD 152/bbl, up almost 70% year on year, with a record crack spread halving projected industry profit to USD 23 billion. (IATA / Platts)

Trade policy stays a live risk. IATA puts 2026 world trade growth at just 1.9%, with WTO/IMF projections positive but softening. A proposed US Section 301 tariff of 10–12.5% on around 60 partners, including the EU and China, faces hearings in early July. From 1 July the EU scraps its €150 de-minimis exemption, replacing it with a flat €3 per item, reshaping cross-border e-commerce; China's low-value exports already fell 11% year on year in April, with shipments to the US down 33%. (IATA, Xeneta)

Air Freight Market Analysis

Rates and demand

The June market shows a stabilising-at-altitude profile:

• Demand has returned to growth, but the spring rate surge has flattened rather than reversed
• Rates remain high because effective capacity, though recovering, is still below demand growth
• Spot procurement stays elevated, but long-term rates have rolled over from their April peak
• Published schedules still overstate real availability on Gulf-affected corridors

Carrier strategies

• Capacity management: Gulf carriers are rebuilding fast – Dubai recovered from 499 daily flights in March to 844 in June, Doha from 42 to 570, and Abu Dhabi from 174 to 462, though DXB and DOH still ran ~50% below normal as late as end-April. (IBA, Cirium)
• Network adjustments: Cargo displaced from the Gulf was rerouted through India, Southeast Asia and China gateways, with added direct Asia–Europe and South Asia–Europe freighter frequencies bypassing MESA transit. (WorldACD)
• Slot and fuel themes: Longer routings raised fuel burn and cut payloads; carriers applied emergency fuel surcharges across lanes during the spike, and some trimmed long-haul passenger schedules by up to 12% into July. (Air Cargo News)
• Yield discipline: With summer belly capacity returning, carriers are prioritising high-yield semiconductor and pharma freight and holding rate discipline rather than chasing thin e-commerce volume.

Regional Insights

North America

• Main trend: Demand back in growth – IATA shows North American carriers up 5.0% year on year in April (capacity +1.2%); WorldACD notes a +10% two-week rebound in early June on post-Memorial Day recovery.
  
  
• Biggest bottleneck: Tariff uncertainty – the proposed Section 301 duties (early-July hearings) and shifting countries-of-origin as production moves away from China.
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: Transpacific remains the firmest corridor; Northeast Asia–US elevated. Domestic flows steady, dipping ~1% week on week in mid-June after holiday spikes. 
  
  
• Operational insight: Build tariff-scenario flexibility into routings now; origin-shifting means lane mixes can change quarter to quarter. Treat North America as a relative stability zone, not a proxy for global conditions. 

Europe

• Main trend: Solid demand – IATA shows European carriers up 6.0% year on year in April (capacity +3.0%); Asia–Europe has structurally gained share from Asia–North America since 2025.

• Biggest bottleneck: The 1 July EU de-minimis change (flat €3/item) plus residual Gulf-transit disruption rerouting South Asia–Europe flows; risk of a clumsy national rollout, as seen when France's early levy pushed parcels to neighbouring countries.

• Impact on rates and flows: Transatlantic demand firmed in May, but ample summer belly capacity is capping rates year on year; MESA–Europe spot rates remain very elevated, in the +80% YoY range.

• Operational insight: Model the de-minimis fee into landed cost from 1 July and pre-clear high-volume e-commerce to avoid hub bottlenecks; prioritise direct lift and protected allotments from Asia. 

Asia

• Main trend: The growth engine – IATA shows Asia-Pacific carriers up 10.5% year on year in April, the strongest of all regions (capacity +5.3%), led by semiconductor and AI demand.

• Biggest bottleneck: Transpacific corridors running at ~90% dynamic load factor (effectively full); periodic jet-fuel scarcity in parts of Asia constrained some flights during the spike. 

• Impact on rates and flows: Taiwan–US reached USD 7.02/kg in May (+24% YoY); Asia–Europe spot held firm, and spot Asia–US edged up ~1% week on week for several weeks into mid-June.

• Operational insight: Book semiconductor and AI-linked lanes well ahead – there is little slack to absorb surges. Keep quote validity short with active surcharge management; consider sea-air via US West Coast where pure air is overpriced.

Middle East 

• Main trend: From collapse toward recovery – IATA shows Middle Eastern carriers down 18.2% year on year in April (the weakest region) after −54.3% in March, but capacity is rebuilding rapidly post-ceasefire. 

• Biggest bottleneck: Fragile ceasefire and incomplete Hormuz reopening; ~12–13% of global capacity affected at peak, with bellyhold and schedule reliability still below pre-war levels.

• Impact on rates and flows: MESA-origin spot rates remain the most elevated year on year (up ~48% ex-MESA in week 24); Gulf inbound volumes recovered from −40% in March to −7% in April. A constrained market, not a closed one. 

• Operational insight: Keep alternative gateways (Saudi Arabia, South Asia direct-to-Europe) and charter options in the plan until reliability fully normalises; planning visibility is improving but rate exposure stays high.

South Africa / Africa 

• Main trend: Africa is among the firmer regions – IATA shows African carriers up 7.7% year on year in April; full-year 2025 growth was +6.0%. South Africa anchors sub-Saharan perishables and mineral/auto-component flows. 

• Biggest bottleneck: Africa–Europe leaned heavily on Gulf-carrier transit, so the Middle East disruption hit African connectivity hard (East Africa −23% week on week at the March peak); limited direct widebody capacity.

• Impact on rates and flows: Spot rates ex-Africa rose through spring (~+62% YoY by mid-April) on rerouting and capacity loss; perishables exporters faced tighter, costlier space. 

• Operational insight: For South African perishables and high-value exports, secure forward capacity on direct or non-Gulf routings and build cold-chain buffer against longer transit times; best suited to controlled, niche flows rather than broad flexible uplift. 

South America 

• Main trend: Mixed official picture but structurally expanding – IATA shows Latin American carriers down 2.8% year on year in April, yet the regional market is growing ~7% CAGR on e-commerce, perishables and pharma. 

• Biggest bottleneck: Belly-capacity dependence and seasonal perishables peaks (flowers, produce) that displace general cargo; limited freighter density on some trunk lanes. 

• Impact on rates and flows: Volumes out of Central & South America dipped 5% week on week in week 24; ex-CSA rates the least inflated year on year (~+11%) – relative value versus other origins. Less directly distorted by Middle East dependency.

• Operational insight: Lock perishables charters early around seasonal peaks; new direct Brazil–Europe and Asia–South America freighter services are widening routing options. Comparatively more predictable where dedicated freighter capacity is maintained.

Outlook & Recommendations (Next 1–3 Months)

Base case: a softer-than-normal summer, with rates easing modestly but staying well above 2025 levels – a high plateau rather than a correction. Xeneta projects demand and supply both growing ~2–3% for the rest of 2026, making a full-year rate decline unlikely after the H1 disruption. The main upside risk is a ceasefire breakdown re-spiking fuel and Gulf capacity; the main downside is ocean frontloading building inventories and dampening air demand. Transpacific stays firm; e-commerce stays subdued through the de-minimis transition. (Xeneta, IATA)

Recommended actions

• Use the plateau as a planning window: with spot flat for ~4 weeks and long-term rates past their peak, convert short extensions into structured agreements before any Q4 build.
• Protect space on transpacific semiconductor/AI and pharma lanes that are effectively full, and do not rely on published schedules alone.
• Keep Middle East contingency routings live – the ceasefire is only 60 days and Hormuz traffic stayed volatile in late June; maintain Saudi/South Asia/charter alternatives and force-majeure clauses.
• Separate corridor strategy from global strategy; transatlantic, Middle East and Asia–Europe are behaving very differently.
• Plan around the 1 July EU de-minimis change and early-July US tariff hearings – both can move e-commerce and origin flows within weeks; pre-clear and re-cost affected lanes now.
• Monitor jet fuel as an amplifier: spot eased to ~USD 119/bbl, but the 2026 average is still forecast near USD 152/bbl and surcharges can re-escalate quickly if the truce slips.

Customer advice 

Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please: 

• Let's closely monitor the developments in US trade policy and the impending world events to manoeuvre potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
• Think ahead and book well in advance; anticipate capacity constraints around peak and holiday periods.
• Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.

However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.

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