Executive summary

Global air cargo demand grew 6.0% year-on-year in May 2026 and 7% in June, driven by robust AI-related semiconductor and high-tech hardware shipments. Supply recovery remains constrained: capacity grew only 1% in H1 2026 after the February Middle East escalation removed 12% of global capacity.

The European Union's 1 July 2026 removal of the €150 duty-free threshold and introduction of €3-per-item duties (plus €2 handling fees in November) has dampened e-commerce volumes, particularly from Hong Kong and China. Tariff-driven frontloading in North America ahead of the 24 July deadline continues to boost Transpacific air demand.

Global Economic & Trade Context

The global air cargo market continues to operate in a bifurcated demand environment. Artificial intelligence and semiconductor shipments have emerged as a major volume driver - global semiconductor sales rose 106% year-on-year in April 2026, marking the strongest annual increase on record since 1986, and AI-related cargo now represents approximately 10% of global air freight volumes with heavy concentration on Transpacific services. Conversely, e-commerce shipments and low-value parcel flows have contracted for six consecutive months (May down 7% year-on-year); this decline has accelerated with the EU's July 1 de minimis rule change, which has reduced volumes from Hong Kong by 23% year-on-year and contributed to broader softening on Asia–Europe lanes.

IATA projects that global airline fuel costs will rise by nearly 40% in 2026 (from $252 billion in 2025 to $350 billion in 2026). Trade policy uncertainty remains elevated: the US tariff deadline of July 24, 2026 (Section 122 duty expiration and Section 301 hearings underway) has driven significant frontloading activity on Transpacific lanes in June and July. Geopolitical instability continues to influence carrier strategy, route planning, and shipper behavior.

Air Freight Market Analysis

Carrier strategies and capacity discipline: Airlines continue to manage capacity closely across key routes, with deliberate blank sailing activity (3% cancellation rate overall, 63% concentrated on Transpacific Eastbound) aimed at maintaining supply–demand balance.

Freighter load factors remain consistently above 90%. Dedicated freighter fleets remain heavily booked; capacity improvements are more visible on intra-Asia and Asia–Europe routes than on Transpacific services. Belly-hold capacity has returned to major intercontinental routes but is being absorbed quickly by high-priority AI-related freight.

Carriers remain hesitant on Middle East hub restoration - only gradual recovery of Gulf carrier capacity, with total capacity in July still 7.5% below pre-February 28 levels and 6.9% below July 2025. Emirates (July capacity down 10.2% YoY), Qatar Airways (down 4.5%), and Flydubai (down 17.5%) remain cautious, while Etihad Airways is an exception (up 11.6% YoY). Fuel surcharges and risk premiums remain embedded in contract pricing.

Regional Insights

North America

• Main trend: Tariff-driven frontloading and strong AI-related demand dominating volumes through July 24 deadline. June US containerized imports reached 2.40M TEUs (+8.2% YoY), with China shipments up 27.4% YoY. North American carriers recorded 10.5% demand growth in May (IATA) but showing signs of moderation as peak frontloading window closes.
  
  
• Biggest bottleneck: Equipment imbalance and equipment shortages across China and Southeast Asia, particularly for 40-foot containers, compounding capacity tightness. Transpacific air freight capacity remains constrained; belly-hold capacity absorbed quickly. Booking lead times stretching hardest on Vietnam and China-origin cargo into East Coast and Gulf.
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: China–US West Coast air rates at $6.68/kg (+37% YoY, week 28), plateaued but elevated. Transpacific ocean spot rates increased 120% since mid-May (Far East to US West Coast), though signs of stabilization emerging in early July. Spot rates from Asia to US East Coast up 85% since mid-May. Carriers maintaining capacity discipline and blank sailing activity to prevent oversupply as frontloading demand moderates.
  
  
• Operational insight: ONE carrier alliance slot agreements (CP1, CP2, CP3, CP4 services with CMA CGM, OOCL, Evergreen) concluded July 6; shippers must confirm alternative routing. Dedicated freighter load factors above 90%. Strong demand for AI hardware and semiconductor shipments dominating utilization; tariff-sensitive general cargo also driving volumes.

Europe

• Main trend: Air freight demand remains stable at 6–7% YoY growth in early 2026 (Maersk), underpinned by robust Asia–Europe corridor activity. However, sharp contraction in e-commerce flows following July 1 EU de minimis rule change. European carriers saw 6.7% demand growth in May (IATA); Asia–Pacific-to-Europe volumes down 15% YoY (week 28, WorldACD).
• Biggest bottleneck: EU import duty changes (€3 per item + €2 handling fee by November) creating regulatory friction. Hong Kong-to-Europe volumes down 23% YoY; China-to-Europe spot rates down 9% WoW but still +15% YoY. Freighter availability constrained on several intra-Asia and Asia–Europe lanes due to aircraft delivery delays and ageing fleet. Middle East rerouting and Southeast Asian transshipment delays compounding schedule reliability issues (35–40% on-time performance industry-wide).
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: China–Europe air rates at $4.45/kg (week 28), down from €5.25/kg peak in early May but still +15% YoY. The EU rule change has reduced volume demand and prompted carriers to reduce capacity in tandem, preventing sharper rate declines. Rates stabilizing around levels last seen in late March. Taiwan-to-Europe tonnages surging ~20% over past 3 weeks (AI-related), offsetting Hong Kong volume losses.
  
  
• Operational insight: Capacity conditions have stabilized with global supply only marginally below 2025 levels (-0.4% YoY as of April). Asia–Europe space remains under pressure; carriers managing capacity closely with blank sailings through August–September. Typhoon Bavi (July 10–13) disrupted East Asia operations; Taiwan freighter ops suspended briefly, impact to Shanghai/Ningbo feeder services. Taiwan-origin AI hardware driving strong demand growth offsetting broader e-commerce decline.

Asia

• Main trend: Divergent regional performance: Asia-Pacific airlines recorded 8.0% demand growth in May (IATA), with strong support from AI and semiconductor shipments. Intra-Asia volumes remain resilient (+7% in March, DHL). However, week 28 (July 6–12) saw sharp contraction: Asia-Pacific volumes down 7% WoW, driven by Typhoon Bavi impacts on Taiwan and China origins. Global tonnages down 4% WoW; MESA (Middle East & South Asia) volumes down 4% WoW.
  
  
• Biggest bottleneck: Super Typhoon Bavi (July 10–13) disrupted freighter operations from Taiwan, affecting chargeable weight and capacity. Taiwan ex-freight volumes down 24% WoW; China and East Asia also impacted. Weather recovery ongoing but schedule delays expected as operations return. EU de minimis rule change severely impacting e-commerce shipments, particularly from Hong Kong; reported volumes down 23% YoY. Freighter availability remains constrained on intra-Asia and Asia–Europe lanes despite capacity being more visible on these routes than Transpacific.
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: Short-term rate weakness from softening e-commerce demand, but Transpacific air rates remain anchored by AI/tariff-driven flows. China-to-Europe air: $4.45/kg (-9% WoW, week 28, smallest YoY gain since late March at +15%). Taiwan-to-Europe surge (+20% over 3 weeks) offsetting Hong Kong losses. Space availability improving on select routes, but lead times remain stretched (7 working days recommended for Southeast Asia bookings).
  
  
• Operational insight: Aircraft delivery delays and fleet ageing limit rapid freighter capacity expansion. Capacity improvements more visible on intra-Asia and Asia–Europe routes than on Transpacific. Carriers rapidly removing and redeploying capacity in response to demand shifts; open capacity emerging on Taiwan lanes following Typhoon disruption. Global schedule reliability ~65% (May), well below pre-pandemic norms but among the highest so far in 2026. Blank sailing activity: 3% overall (5-week period through early August), with 63% on Transpacific Eastbound and 29% on Asia–Europe.

Middle East 

• Main trend: Gradual capacity and volume recovery from February escalation, but July US-Iran escalation creating fresh uncertainty. Middle East carriers saw 9.4% more cargo and 7.8% more capacity in July YoY (IATA). However, recent US-Iran tensions (strikes exchanged for ten days through mid-July, with Iranian actions targeting neighbor states and area vessels) are causing renewed hesitation. Middle Eastern carriers had -8.9% demand contraction in May YoY; April saw -18.2% decline.
  
  
• Biggest bottleneck: Persistent geopolitical volatility deterring international carrier investment in Gulf hub recovery. Capacity from Gulf countries down 4% WoW (week 28). Some global carriers continue to avoid the region; Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Flydubai running well below 2025 levels (Emirates -10.2% YoY in July, Qatar -4.5%, Flydubai -17.5%). MESA volumes down 4% WoW; tonnages from MESA to US down ~14% WoW.
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: Freightos Air Index South Asia–Middle East rates at $2.93/kg (roughly double pre-war levels). Carriers pushing off planned returns to the region, keeping upward pressure on rates. Rerouted flows via direct Asia–Europe services absorbing demand; intra-Asia volumes resilient. Freightos Air Index global benchmark still 25% above pre-war and year-ago levels, anchored partly by Gulf rate premium.
  
  
• Operational insight: Middle East capacity in July still 7.5% below pre-February 28 levels and 6.9% below July 2025. Etihad Airways is an exception to regional decline (up 11.6% YoY in July), and Israeli carriers (El Al) recording strong recovery (+31.2% YoY in July). Ocean freight market similarly impacted: Red Sea traffic still heavily constrained, with containers relying on longer, congested alternative regional ports and landbridges.

South Africa/Africa 

• Main trend: African carriers recorded robust demand growth in May 2026: 8.0% increase YoY (IATA), the strongest regional performance alongside strong Asia-Pacific growth. Africa held 2.1% of global cargo traffic market share (by CTK). Limited granular South Africa-specific data available this reporting period.
  
  
• Biggest bottleneck: Limited public data for South Africa-specific operational constraints at time of writing. African carriers are benefiting from relative insulation from Middle East disruptions but operate with smaller freighter fleets and less frequent direct intercontinental services compared to major hubs.
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: Limited public data this month. African carriers' strong regional growth suggests pricing power remains elevated on intra-Africa and Africa-to-Asia flows driven by resilient raw material and perishables export demand.
  
  
• Operational insight: Africa's regional growth and relative isolation from Middle East disruptions position African carriers as alternative routings for Asia–Europe and Asia–North America traffic seeking to avoid Gulf hubs. IATA data suggests growing strategic importance of African carriers as capacity backstop.

South America 

• Main trend: Latin American and Caribbean carriers recorded modest growth: 1.9% demand increase YoY in May (IATA). Regional carriers remain focused on niche seasonal demand (perishables exports) and Asia-bound flows. July earthquake in Venezuela has created short-term emergency cargo flows to the region.
  
  
• Biggest bottleneck: Seasonal perishables exports (fruit, flowers, seafood) competing for capacity with general cargo on key routes. Limited freighter frequency and higher unit costs compared to major hubs. Emergency relief cargo (earthquake response in Venezuela) temporarily displacing commercial general cargo from regional aircraft.
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: Seasonal demand drivers dominate rather than tariff or trade policy impacts. Perishables rate premiums remain elevated. Capacity being absorbed for aid missions to Venezuela; limited data on commercial rate impacts this period. Miami and other US gateways remain key distribution hubs for South American cargo into North American markets.
  
  
• Operational insight: South America's role as secondary capacity source for North America and Asia-bound shipments remains stable. Increased Asia-bound demand from the region reflects diversification away from China-centric supply chains. Short-term emergency relief operations following Venezuela earthquake may create booking friction on regional services through August.

Near-term forecast (August–September 2026, base case)

Tariff-driven frontloading demand will taper sharply post-July 24 as the Section 122 duty regime clarifies and Section 301 outcomes become known. Transpacific air and ocean spot rates are expected to ease modestly in August–early September as this temporary surge abates.

E-commerce volumes on Asia–Europe lanes will likely remain under pressure through Q3 as EU duty collection mechanisms (and further fee additions in November) deter low-value parcel flows. AI/semiconductor demand will continue to support Transpacific air utilization, but at a more moderate growth rate (3–5% YoY expected for H2 2026, per Xeneta forecast).

Middle East capacity recovery will remain uneven if geopolitical tensions persist; this could sustain elevated rates on Asia–Middle East–Europe rerouted services. Global rates are expected to ease from mid-year highs but remain 5–10% above pre-war levels through year-end.

Recommended actions

• Plan ahead and book well in advance. Anticipate capacity constraints around tariff deadlines, peak-season demand (August–October), and holiday periods. Current geopolitical volatility adds unpredictability; early booking and forecasting discipline reduce last-minute friction.
• Separate base rate, fuel surcharge, and risk premium in quotations for margin transparency. Fuel remains elevated (~20% above pre-war); risk premiums on Middle East and Transpacific flows are substantive. Transparent pricing helps manage customer expectations and facilitates rate negotiations.
• Monitor US trade policy and world events closely. The July 24 tariff deadline and Section 301 outcomes will reshape Transpacific demand in August. The US-Iran escalation and Strait of Hormuz volatility create operational risk; diversify routing and carrier options to protect service levels.

Customer advice 

Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please: 

• Let's closely monitor the developments in US trade policy and the impending world events to manoeuvre potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
• Think ahead and book well in advance; anticipate capacity constraints around peak and holiday periods.
• Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.

However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.

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