Air Freight Market Outlook - August 2026

Executive summary

Global air freight rates have cooled distinctly in late July and early August after peaking in May. Xeneta reported spot rates at USD 3.12/kg in July, up 28% year-on-year but down 6% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of YoY growth deceleration.

IATA's June data showed demand growth of 8.5% YoY outpacing capacity growth of 4.4% YoY, driven by high-value technology and AI/semiconductor shipments, particularly on the transpacific route.

However, two structural shifts complicate the picture: the EU's July 1 de minimis duty changes have gutted low-value e-commerce flows to Europe, and the market is now split between booming AI demand and a collapsed e-commerce base.

Peak season is arriving earlier than normal, but without the traditional volume surge. Rates remain elevated against pre-conflict levels, but the direction is decidedly downward.

Bertling View:

The market is splitting, not recovering. AI demand from Taiwan and Southeast Asia is climbing, but e-commerce to Europe has collapsed post - 1 July 2026. Rate declines are welcome relief, but they mask a structural shift in cargo composition and geography. The question is not whether rates will keep falling—they will—but whether the new baseline will be high enough to sustain profitable operations for forwarders caught in the middle.

Global Economic & Trade Context

The macro backdrop remains mixed, with trade fundamentals broadly supportive but structurally shifting. IATA's June data showed global trade growth of 5.2% year-on-year, though exports remain unevenly distributed. The US introduced a new tariff regime on 24 July 2026, applying country-specific duties of 10% and 12.5% to imports from 60 trading partners, intensifying supply-chain complexity.

Jet fuel remains the primary cost headwind: the global average price stood at USD 158.77 per barrel in the week ending 31 July, well above pre-conflict levels (+45% YoY in June).

Airlines are managing fuel through weekly surcharge adjustments: United reduced its Market Disruption Fee effective 1 August, while DHL, FedEx and others maintain dynamic weekly fuel mechanisms tied to IATA jet fuel indices.

The EU's July 1 de minimis rule change has had outsized impact. Replacing the EUR 150 duty-free threshold with a flat EUR 3 per item duty plus EUR 2 handling fee, the regulation has compressed low-value e-commerce air flows by an estimated 20%+ on China–Europe routes.

WorldACD data confirmed sixth consecutive week of tonnage declines from China and Hong Kong to Europe in late July. This regulatory headwind is structural and will not reverse.

Air Freight Market Analysis

Carrier Strategies

Airlines are adapting to a split market. North America and transpacific capacity are growing; Asia–Europe and Middle East-linked services remain constrained. Global capacity is flat year-on-year as of 20 July (per DHL reporting), with North America and transpacific growth offsetting declines in Europe, MEA and China. China–Europe freighter capacity is down 12% YoY; Middle East capacity remains 4% below last year.

Cathay Pacific postponed resumption of Dubai and Riyadh services, signaling continued caution. Lufthansa Cargo is leaning into Asia connectivity, increasing transpacific rotations (Ho Chi Minh–Shanghai–LA now twice weekly) and maintaining 87 flights per week to 35 destinations.

Fuel surcharges are now routine and dynamic: carriers adjust weekly based on IATA jet fuel indices, separating base rate from surcharge to signal cost volatility to customers.

Regional Insights

North America

• Main trend: Strongest performer globally. IATA June demand +13.1% YoY with capacity +6.2% YoY, generating nearly 38% of global industry CTK growth. Transpacific Asia–North America corridor driven by AI and semiconductor demand.
• Biggest bottleneck: Heatwave payload restrictions at West Coast hubs (LAX, Long Beach) in late July–early August; monsoon weather adding friction to Asia routes.
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: Transpacific rates remain elevated (~+33% from late February pre-conflict levels). Peak season adjustments of 8–15% in early August, but less pronounced than Asia–Europe declines.
  
  
• Operational insight: AI hardware dominates uplift; traditional seasonal peaks are flat. Secure dedicated capacity well in advance for semiconductor and high-tech shipments; belly-hold space filling quickly with premium cargo.

Europe

• Main trend:Demand recovered to +6.9% YoY in June, but offset by structural headwind: EU de minimis rule change on 1 July has collapsed low-value e-commerce flows. China–Europe tonnages down 19% vs June, down 24% YoY. Freighter capacity out of China down 12% YoY.
  
  
• Biggest bottleneck: Regulatory impact (EU duties on low-value goods); lingering Middle East airspace constraints; loss of e-commerce volume base that had supported growth in 2024–Q2 2026.
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: Hong Kong–Europe fell from USD 5.45/kg (June) to USD 4.76/kg (July, -13%). China–Europe fell from USD 5.43/kg to USD 3.86/kg (-29% in six weeks). Early August saw 8–15% MoM increase due to peak-season demand, but baseline remains well below June.
  
  
• Operational insight: Market is now split: AI and high-value tech still command premiums; e-commerce (especially low-value) has collapsed post-EU de minimis change. Recommend splitting quotations (premium tech vs. standard e-commerce) to reflect divergent dynamics.

Asia

• Main trend: Demand growth +7.9% YoY in June (IATA); capacity only +4.3% YoY. Strong AI/semiconductor shipments out of Taiwan and Southeast Asia supporting rates. However, China–Europe base has collapsed, redistributing regional flows.
  
  
• Biggest bottleneck: AI demand hoarding capacity; Middle East rerouting extending flight times by 1–3 hours and increasing fuel burn; monsoon/typhoon season weather restrictions; 12–20% of global capacity still removed from market due to rerouting.
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: Asia-Pacific origins to all destinations: USD 4.75/kg (down 10% MoM but +29% YoY). Taiwan and Southeast Asia origins remain elevated (+33–39% YoY). Northeast/Southeast Asia to North America still +33% from late February. Intra-Asia and regional consolidation hubs remain under pressure.
  
  
• Operational insight: AI and semiconductor demand is real and structurally different from e-commerce. These shipments command premium rates, bypass price-sensitive pools, and tolerate longer lead times and higher surcharges. Build separate quotation tracks for tech vs. low-value.

Middle East 

• Main trend: Partial recovery underway. IATA June Middle Eastern carrier demand +5.6% YoY, a marked improvement from March crisis levels. Capacity +2.5% YoY. Airlines are gradually restoring networks, but airspace restrictions and insurance complexities persist.
  
  
• Biggest bottleneck: Continued security/geopolitical risk; longer rerouting (northern and southern corridors adding 1–3 hours and higher fuel costs); reduced hub confidence; Gulf connectivity still impaired (Cathay delayed Dubai/Riyadh resumption).
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: South Asia to Middle East +84% YoY (week ending 31 July); Southeast Asia to Middle East +47% YoY; Europe to Middle East +62% YoY. Rates remain structurally elevated but stabilising as capacity trickles back.
  
  
• Operational insight: Treat Middle East-linked routings as constrained, not closed. Confirm real uplift capacity with carriers and GSAs before customer commitment. Longer flight times and fuel surcharges are here to stay; build contingency hubs (Egypt, Turkey) into routing plans.

South Africa/Africa 

• Main trend: Demand +4.7% YoY in June, but capacity declined -7.1% YoY, the only region with negative capacity growth. Lack of direct freighter density and dependency on Middle East transit hubs leaves Africa exposed to Gulf disruption.
  
  
• Biggest bottleneck: Connectivity depth; limited freighter services; rerouting via longer corridors; seasonal operational restrictions.
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: Europe–Africa spot rates rose ~31% from late February, reflecting Middle East hub loss. Direct routing remains limited; consolidation through European hubs necessary for most shippers.
  
  
• Operational insight: Perishables, mining, and project cargo remain time-critical. Book early and validate carrier capacity; use regional consolidation hubs (Frankfurt, Brussels) to secure direct space. South Africa remains relatively stable; use it as gateway for broader African coverage.

South America 

• Main trend: Demand +1.8% YoY in June (Latin America/Caribbean); capacity +5.1% YoY. Market is comparatively stable, with North America–Latin America lanes broadly flat and Europe–Latin America softer due to capacity withdrawal.
  
  
• Biggest bottleneck:Lower carrier density; smaller market scale; gateway concentration (Miami).
  
  
• Impact on rates and flows: North America–Latin America rates broadly flat; Europe–Latin America rose ~12% reflecting broader Asia–Europe capacity reductions. No evidence of peak-season surge.
  
  
• Operational insight: Use established gateway routings (Miami for North America, Sao Paulo for intra-regional) where reliability matters. South America is lower-yield but stable; anchor with long-term contracts on key corridors.

Operational Insights

• Peak season is arriving earlier but without volume confirmation. Do not assume traditional August–September surge; validate customer demand before committing to capacity. Charter demand is almost non-existent.
  
  
• The market has split in two: AI/semiconductor traffic is booming and commands premium pricing; e-commerce (especially low-value) has collapsed post-EU de minimis change. Quotation strategies must reflect this structural divide.
  
  
• Middle East-linked flows remain constrained. Alternative routings (northern and southern corridors) are 1–3 hours longer and consume more fuel. Confirm real capacity with carriers; do not rely on published schedules.
  
  
• Spot exposure remains elevated. Customers requiring guaranteed uplift should expect shorter quote validity (7–10 days) and dynamic pricing; long-term contracts remain the only path to price stability.

Market Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

The base case is soft but structurally split. Spot rates should continue easing toward USD 2.80–3.00/kg (from USD 3.12 in July) as supply gradually recovers and demand moderates into Q4 2026. However, this assumes no new Middle East escalation or geopolitical shock; such events remain a risk. Contract rates (up 5–15% for full-year 2026) are unlikely to fall as sharply as spot rates, as airlines will resist yield compression.

The real story is not one of normalisation but structural reallocation: AI/semiconductor traffic will remain premium-priced and supply-constrained through 2026; e-commerce to Europe will remain depressed as long as EU duties remain in place; and Middle East connectivity will recover incrementally but never return to pre-conflict density.

Peak season expectations should be reset. Xeneta and carrier feedback confirm minimal appetite for peak-season charters. Logistics teams should plan for later, smaller surges and focus on securing long-term contracts for Q4 high-value (tech, aerospace, pharma) cargo rather than expecting traditional volume peaks.

Recommendations for Logistics Teams

1. Separate base rate, fuel surcharge and risk premium in all quotations. Dynamic fuel-indexing is now standard; customers need transparent cost decomposition to plan margins.
   
   
2. Build two-tier quotation strategies: premium track for AI, semiconductors, pharma, aerospace (shorter validity, dynamic pricing, guaranteed uplift); standard track for e-commerce and bulk cargo (lower rates, longer validity, spot-linked).
   
   
3. Book direct capacity with carriers 2–3 weeks in advance for Europe and North America lanes; 1–2 weeks for intra-Asia. Spot-market access is limited; prioritise long-term contracts.
   
   
4. Validate real uplift capacity with carriers/GSAs before customer commitment. Published schedules and rerouting constraints mean nominal capacity often differs by 15–25% from available slots.
   
   
5. Monitor fuel surcharge formulas closely. Weekly changes by DHL, FedEx, ANA and others mean customer invoices can shift USD 0.15–0.25/kg week-to-week. Communicate this volatility upfront.
   
   
6. Defer low-value e-commerce shipments or redirect to ocean freight. EU de minimis duties make air uneconomical for <EUR 150 orders; this is structural and will persist.

Bottom line

August 2026 is a market in transition. Rates are cooling, but not collapsing. Demand remains bifurcated between high-value tech and a hollowed-out e-commerce base. Airlines are managing capacity defensively, focusing on premium cargo and long-term contracts. The logistics winners will be those who adapt quotation strategies to this split market, communicate cost volatility clearly, and secure direct capacity in advance rather than relying on spot access.

Sources: Xeneta, IATA, WorldACD, Air Cargo News, CLECAT, DHL, Drewry,

Customer advice 

Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please: 

• Let's closely monitor the developments in US trade policy and the impending world events to manoeuvre potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
• Think ahead and book well in advance; anticipate capacity constraints around peak and holiday periods.
• Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.

However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.

*Transparency Notice: This article was generated with the assistance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to provide timely and relevant insights into global logistics. The content has been reviewed for accuracy and completeness by our Bertling Logistics editorial team prior to publication.

Stay informed

CONTACT US            Related ocean freight market report            find an office