The global shipping industry is once again operating in high-alert mode. Following recent escalations involving Iran, Israel, and the US, the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint – is becoming a pressure valve for geopolitical tension.
What’s at stake?
- ~20% of global oil and LNG pass through the Strait daily.
- Iran is threatening closure – politically and militarily.
- A full blockade remains unlikely, but “gray zone” disruptions (e.g., GPS spoofing, vessel seizures, harassment) are already underway.
Thorsten Diephaus
Global Head Container Freight Procurement
P: +49 40 3233550M: +49 173 701 8158
E: thorsten.diephaus@bertling.com
Immediate Impacts
- Oil prices spiked 5.7% after the first strikes.
- War risk insurance has surged and Carriers will implement / announce the surcharges (We need to make sure, to invoice our customers) Updates will follow
- Freight rates and risk premiums are rising accordingly, but we need to be cautious when we are quoting long term projects starting later this year or next year only.
Key Risk Scenarios
- Gray Zone Attrition (most likely): Delays, higher costs, insurance complications.
- Regional Escalation: Attacks on Gulf infrastructure → massive impact on oil price
- Hormuz Closure (low probability): oil price spike, global recession risk.
What logistics needs to do now
- Accept higher base costs or surcharges as the new normal, regardless what the contract is showing
- Rerouting and slow steaming increase transit times.
- Check potential re-routing for different business. Although it need to be clear, that re-routing will be at higher cost and partly quite difficult to manage.
Big Picture
This isn’t a short-term shock. It’s a shift. The new geometry of trade will favor diversified sourcing, “friendshoring,” and supply chain resilience over low-cost efficiency. For logistics teams, this means one thing: prepare not just for disruption – but for persistent volatility.
