Hamburg, DE – June 24, 2025 – Global supply chains are facing a new wave of uncertainty and cost escalation as shipping carriers and insurers react to the recent military intervention in Iran. A detailed analysis of the current market conditions reveals a sharp increase in surcharges for cargo transiting the critical Strait of Hormuz, with War Risk Surcharges being the most significant and immediate new cost.
The intervention, which saw US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on 21-22 June, 2025, has sent shockwaves through the maritime industry, which was already grappling with the protracted crisis in the Red Sea. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply and a significant volume of container traffic, is now considered a high-risk zone, prompting immediate and substantial commercial responses.
Thorsten Diephaus
Global Head Container Freight Procurement
P: +49 40 3233550M: +49 173 701 8158
E: thorsten.diephaus@bertling.com
War Risk Surcharges (WRS): A Primary and Immediate Impact
The most direct and significant new cost for shippers is the dramatic surge in war risk insurance premiums, which are being passed on by carriers as War Risk Surcharges. While specific, publicly announced per-TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) surcharges from all major container lines are still emerging as carriers assess the fluid situation, the underlying insurance costs have skyrocketed.
- Insurance Premium Hike: War risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have jumped from approximately 0.125% of the ship's value to between 0.2% and 0.4%. For vessels with any affiliation to Israel or its allies, quotes have reportedly reached as high as 0.7%.
- Cost per Voyage: For a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), this translates to an additional cost of $200,000 to $360,000 per voyage. These costs are being directly passed on to the charterers of the vessels and, ultimately, to the owners of the cargo. While container vessels have a lower insured value than VLCCs, the per-container cost is still substantial.
- Carrier Actions: Major carriers like Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have activated emergency clauses in their contracts, allowing them to pass on these increased costs. While Maersk has stated it continues to deem passage through the strait as "possible," it has contingency plans in place and has temporarily suspended calls to the port of Haifa in Israel. CMA CGM has established a dedicated monitoring cell to assess the risk on a continuous basis.
General Rate Increases (GRIs): De Facto Hikes in Freight Rates
While formal "General Rate Increase" announcements specifically citing the late June intervention are yet to be widely published, the market is experiencing a de facto GRI due to the heightened risk and reduced capacity.
- Tanker Rates: The impact has been most immediate in the tanker market, with spot rates for VLCCs on the Middle East to China route surging by 154% in the week following the intervention.
- Container Rates: Container freight rates have also seen a significant increase. The rate for a 40-foot container (FEU) from Shanghai to Jebel Ali, a major hub in the Persian Gulf, has risen by 55% month-over-month to approximately $4,200 per FEU.
Peak Season Surcharges (PSS): An Additional Layer of Cost
Adding to the financial pressure on shippers, several major carriers had already announced Peak Season Surcharges for routes including the Middle East, effective in June 2025. These were initially driven by expectations of higher demand and operational challenges but are now compounded by the new geopolitical risks.
- Maersk: The Danish shipping giant announced a PSS of $600 for all container types from the Far East to several Middle Eastern countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. This surcharge became effective on 5 June 2025.
- Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM: Other carriers have also implemented PSS on various global trade lanes, contributing to the overall increase in shipping costs.
A Detailed Overview of Surcharges:
| Surcharge Type | Carrier(s) | Amount | Effective Date | Applicable Trade Lanes | Notes |
| War Risk Surcharge | All carriers transiting the Strait of Hormuz | Variable, based on increased insurance premiums (0.2% - 0.7% of vessel value) | Immediate (from June 21, 2025) | All cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz | This is the most significant new cost, passed on from insurers to carriers and then to shippers. Specific per-TEU amounts may be communicated directly to clients. |
| General Rate Increase | Market-driven | Significant increase in spot freight rates (e.g., +55% Shanghai to Jebel Ali) | Immediate (from June 21, 2025) | All routes to and from the Persian Gulf | A de facto GRI resulting from risk, reduced capacity, and higher operational costs. |
| Peak Season Surcharge | Maersk | $600 per container | June 5, 2025 | Far East to the Middle East | Announced prior to the major escalation but adds to the overall cost burden. |
| Peak Season Surcharge | Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and others | Variable | June 2025 | Various global trade lanes, including some to the Middle East | Reflects broader market conditions, now exacerbated by the conflict. |
Outlook and Recommendations
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile. The conditional approval by the Iranian parliament to close the strait, pending a final decision, adds a layer of extreme risk. Shippers should anticipate further updates from their carriers in the coming days and weeks.
Logistics managers are advised to:
- Communicate proactively with freight forwarders and carriers to get the latest information on surcharges and potential transit time changes.
- Review shipping contracts to understand the terms of war risk and other emergency clauses.
- Factor in significantly higher shipping costs and potential delays into their supply chain planning.
- Explore alternative routing options where feasible, although these will likely come with longer transit times and higher costs.
The confluence of the Red Sea crisis and the new tensions in the Strait of Hormuz presents an unprecedented challenge to global logistics, with the potential for widespread disruption and sustained high costs for the foreseeable future.
