Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
South America
Middle East
South Africa

Summary of the ocean freight market update in October 

US–China Trade Truce: President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping met in South Korea - their first face-to-face meeting in six years - agreeing to suspend reciprocal port charges and ease trade tensions. The US will pause Section 301 measures on China’s maritime and shipbuilding sectors for one year, while China will suspend its Special Port Service Fee on US vessels. Additional deals include Chinese purchases of US soybeans, tariff reductions, cooperation on rare earths, and a pledge by China to curb fentanyl-related exports. – Seatrade Maritime, WSJ

Record US LNG Exports: The US became the first nation to export over 10 million metric tonnes of LNG in a single month, reaching 10.1 mmt in October 2025. The increase was driven by new capacity from Venture Global's Plaquemines Plant and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 Project. – Reuters

Surge in LNG-Fueled Ship Orders: October saw 30 new alternative-fueled vessel orders, signaling recovery after a weak Q3. LNG-fueled container ships led with 26 orders, while four methanol-fueled tankers were also commissioned. – gCaptain

Energy Price - October 2025

20 September 2025 = USD66.68
20 October 2025 = USD61.01

• OPEC+ Output Plans: OPEC+ will raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, matching previous months’ increases, but plans to pause further hikes in early 2026 due to seasonal factors. – WSJ
• Marine Fuel Trends: Since IMO 2020’s sulfur limits took effect, shippers initially switched to low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO). However, high-sulfur fuel oil is regaining share as more vessels install scrubbers that allow its continued use. – USEIA
• Global LNG Expansion: The IEA projects record LNG capacity growth by 2030, reshaping global gas markets and influencing energy security and affordability. – IEA
• Sinopec–LG Chem Battery Venture: Sinopec and LG Chem have launched a joint venture to develop sodium-ion batteries for energy storage and low-speed EVs. The technology offers lower costs and better cold performance than lithium-ion alternatives, marking Sinopec’s entry into the battery sector. – OilPrice.com

Ocean freight trends - Europe

Operational Paralysis at Key Gateways: October 2025 was defined by severe operational paralysis at Europe's primary container gateways. Near-simultaneous labor strikes at the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp in October brought container handling to a virtual standstill for over a week.  

Main Reasons for Bottlenecks

• In Rotterdam, strikes by lashing companies halted the securing and releasing of containers on vessels.
• In Antwerp, industrial action by port pilots severely restricted vessel movements on the Scheldt.

• While the acute strike phases eased by mid-October - following a court order in Rotterdam and a negotiation period in Antwerp - the operational damage was already done. The stoppages created a massive backlog of vessels at anchorage and severe terminal congestion. The Port of Rotterdam Authority estimated that clearing this backlog would take until at least the end of October.
• The knock-on effects on the hinterland network have been profound. Inland barge handling at both ports experienced delays of 50-70 hours, effectively paralyzing a key artery for European cargo distribution.

Impact on Market and Rates

These operational disruptions are compounding an already fragile market:

• Asia-Europe: While import demand into Europe has been soft throughout 2025, the acute capacity shortage caused by the port paralysis and blank sailings has triggered significant spot rate increases for November sailings.
• Europe-Asia (Backhaul): This trade lane remains under severe pressure, with rates currently at record lows.
• Transatlantic (Westbound): The Transatlantic Westbound trade tells a different story, also remaining under heavy pressure due to a continued lack of volume.

Outlook

Looking ahead, all backhaul trades remain stressed. The market is now anticipating the results of new long-term contract negotiations, which are set to take effect on January 1st, 2026.

Ocean freight trends - Asia Pacific

Q4 indicates a mixed and volatile market tone with pockets of tightening on transpacific lanes (carriers pushing GRIs). The broader index levels remain below the 2024 peaks and showing recent week-to-week swings. The US-China tariff truce has been extended through mid-late 2025 in successive moves, reducing immediate threats of dramatic tariff hikes. This has somehow removed a major tail-risk but leaving demand timing and front loading effects volatile.

Major Asian hubs are still showing measurable waiting times and yard pressure (Shanghai, Singapore, Ningbo and Laem Chabang) with feeder and inland pinch points. Therefore, carriers are reacting with selective blank sailings and GRIs to protect yields.

Main Reasons for Bottlenecks

Several factors are contributing to bottlenecks in the Asian shipping industry:

1. Feeder and Inland capacity squeeze: Feeder vessel shortages and strained trucking/rail capacity from manufacturing clusters to ports are creating multi-day pick up backlogs and delay vessel stuffing/loading.
2. Port Congestion: Week-to-week vessel bunching, Golden Week driven blankings and recovery windows, plus weather / labour impacts have increased waiting times for berth at several major hubs.
3. Carriers’ Capacity Management: Carriers are intentionally blanking weaker sailings, redeploying vessels to higher yield transpacific loops, and inserting adhoc extra loaders. These creates unpredictability for secondary trades and feeders.

Impact on Freight Rates

• Transpacific (Asia to US) lanes have seen carriers pushing up GRIs and rates in recent weeks. Spot quotes show a rebound from mid-2025 levels with short term increases. Expecting continued tactical GRIs into November.
• We expect upward volatility on priority lanes (especially Asia to US) as carriers extract yield in the short run. For the medium run, freight rates depend on whether demand softening post-front loading or tariff clarity reduces urgency. This could push rates down again through corrections.

Outlook

• On the overall, the shipping industry in Asia is volatile but not in freefall. Cooling from tariff driven front loading peaks, seasonal holidays keep volumes steady but not excessive. If the US-China truce or framework is maintained, the urgency premium fades. Carriers will continue tactical blank sailings and year end repositioning so we can expect intermittent concentration of vessels at major hubs but fewer extreme bottlenecks than mid-2025.
• Spot rates are likely to moderate from October peaks and carriers may sustain elevated all-in pricing via surcharges and GRIs into November and December. However, it is important to note that in the event of a bullish case, a surprise resurgence in demand with continued container equipment shortages may push rates higher and sustain port congestion scenarios into Q1 2026.

Ocean freight trends - North America

Section 301 Suspension: The US will suspend for one year, starting November 10, 2025, the Section 301 actions targeting China’s maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors as part of the new trade deal between Presidents Trump and Xi. Negotiations with China will continue alongside cooperation with South Korea and Japan on shipbuilding. – gCaptain

Tariff Challenge: The Trump administration faces a Supreme Court case brought by small businesses and states arguing that many tariffs are illegal. A ruling against the government could overturn Trump’s trade policies and force refunds of billions in tariff revenues. – BBC

Impact on Freight Rates

US–China Trade Truce Impact:

• Xeneta reports the 12-month trade truce won’t stop the decline in ocean container freight rates in 2026
• Average spot rates (Oct 31) from China to US West Coast: $2,147/FEU, down 59% YoY
• Spot rates to US East Coast: $3,044/FEU, down 48% YoY. – FIBRE2FASHION

Short-Term Rate Increases:

• Recent container shipping prices from Asia to the US rose due to mid-October carrier increases
• Drewry: +6% Shanghai–Los Angeles, +4% Shanghai–New York; expected to be short-lived
• Freightos: +20% to West Coast, +14% to East Coast; rise supported by increased blanked sailings. – ICIS

Outlook

ONE Profit Downgrade:

• Ocean Network Express (ONE) lowered full-year profit guidance for fiscal 2026 to $310m, down from $700m in August and $1.1bn baseline in April
• Market pressures include ongoing new ship deliveries and Red Sea diversions
• Linerlytica warns that once rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope ends, ~130 vessels (~6% of global boxship fleet) could return to service, increasing freight and charter market pressure. – LloydsList

Container Shipping Outlook:

• US–China trade truce unlikely to reverse declining Transpacific demand.
• China–US container shipping demand fell 13% YoY in August due to inventory adjustments.
• Xeneta projects global spot rates may drop up to 25% in 2026; long-term contract rates could fall 10%, keeping prices ~20% below Dec 2023 levels.
• Overcapacity expected in 2026; carriers will struggle to fill vessels despite tariff reductions. – Global Trade

Ocean freight trends - South America

The shipping landscape in Latin America in October 2025 is shaped by several significant trends:

Capacity Redirection: There is a growing trend of capacity redirection from Asia-LATAM routes to the Trans-Pacific, influenced by market dynamics and demand.

Impact of US Tariffs: New US tariffs on Brazilian products, including coffee, sugar, and orange juice, are beginning to impact export volumes, creating uncertainty on routes to North America.

E-commerce Growth in Latin America: The e-commerce sector in the region continues its robust expansion, projected to reach $200 billion by the end of 2025, driving demand for logistics and last-mile services.

Increase in Container Ship Capacity: The global market will see an 8% increase in container ship capacity in 2025, which may influence freight dynamics, depending on regional allocation.

Regional Economic Growth: The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects economic growth of 2.4% for the region in 2025, indicating an underlying demand for goods and services.

Increased Chinese Participation: China’s share of exports to LATAM has grown significantly, from 27% in 2019 to 38% in the first half of 2025, solidifying its position as a dominant trading partner and reconfiguring import routes.

Main Reasons for Bottlenecks

Latin America’s port and logistics infrastructure faces a series of critical challenges in October 2025:

• Santos, Brazil: Suffers from chronic congestion due to increased cargo volumes and limitations of land and maritime infrastructure.
• Buenaventura, Colombia: Faces severe congestion driven by growing coal volumes and the limited capacity of its terminals.
• Callao, Peru: Outdated port facilities impose significant restrictions on the handling capacity of large vessels and increasing volumes.
• Valparaíso, Chile: Congestion is common, resulting from high container traffic and limited berth availability.
• Buenos Aires, Argentina: Obsolete port infrastructure limits the capacity and efficiency of operations, contributing to delays.
• Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: The port experiences congestion due to a shortage of skilled labor and increased demand.

Impact on Freight Rates & Dynamics

Freight rates in LATAM in October 2025 are under multiple pressures, resulting in varied dynamics:

• Reduction in Brazil-US Spot Rates: A reduction of more than 20% is observed in spot rates for the Brazil-US route, driven by weaker export volumes due to new tariffs and lower demand.
• Transpacific Route (Global Impact): The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) on the Transpacific route increased by 12.9%, reaching a 4-week high. This increase is a direct reflection of the impact of China-US tariffs, which are generating demand spikes before full implementation and cargo reorganization.
• SAWC (South America West Coast) Rates: Rates for the South America West Coast are expected to remain stable or show a slight decrease, as capacity adjusts and local operational challenges are managed.
• Brazil Rates: Despite reduced volumes on some routes due to tariffs, freight rates in Brazil are expected to remain stable, supported by other factors such as internal demand and equipment scarcity.
• Rate Pressure in Q4 2025: Upward pressure on rates is expected throughout Q4 2025, driven by continuous operational challenges, port congestion, and seasonal adjustments.
• Blank Sailings: Several blank sailings (voyage cancellations) are expected for October, as carriers adjust capacity to optimize routes and deal with demand volatility and bottlenecks.
• Container Equipment Shortage: The shortage of containers, especially in inland terminals and secondary ports, continues to be an issue, creating drayage bottlenecks and additional delays in the supply chain.

Outlook

The Latin American shipping market in October 2025 is in a period of significant transition, driven by multifaceted pressures ranging from global capacity and e-commerce trends to complex geopolitical challenges and critical infrastructure limitations. This scenario, although volatile, offers opportunities for agile and well-positioned players who can anticipate and respond strategically to changes. The need for strategic adaptation in Q4 2025 is paramount to mitigate risks, optimize operations, and maintain competitiveness in an increasingly complex business environment.

Ocean freight trends - Middle East

Main Reasons for Bottlenecks

• Jebel Ali, UAE and Sohar Port, Oman have been congested in October , Sohar reporting 7 days congestion on an average and Jebel Ali Port had productivity issues due to issues with Cranes with an average of Two days of waiting for berthing.
• The ongoing Red Sea crisis remains a challenge. 

Impact on Freight Rates

• Expectation of slightly lowering or stabilization of Import Freight rates during November but at the same time expect carriers to blank out sailings.
• Some lanes benefited from a period of stable pricing due to extended rates, a move intended to provide predictable rates for shippers during the Golden Week holiday period.

Outlook

• The broader Indian Subcontinent, Middle East, and Africa (IMEA) region will continue to show strong trade and logistics performance, indicating a robust economic environment. 
• High volatility continues due to ongoing Red Sea conflict.

Ocean freight trends - South Africa

South African container terminals handled an average of 11,423 TEUs daily, down from 12,279 TEUs the previous week.

The latest Southern Africa Terminal and Service Update from Maersk for Week 42 indicates that our major South African ports are generally fluid, with minimal waiting times recorded. Conversely, the picture looks slightly dimmer for our neighbouring ports.

This week brought some continued operational delays and challenges – including the ongoing BMA and Port Health shortages at key borders, as well as substantial losses in operational time because of bad weather –however, there continues to be elevated numbers worth celebrating.

Encouragingly, progress is evident as we move beyond a fragmented, inefficient system toward a transparent, data-driven, and performance-based environment.

The growing alignment between public and private stakeholders, guided by shared responsibility and infrastructure, is beginning to reposition South Africa within global supply chains – laying the groundwork for a more balanced, efficient, and competitive logistics network.

Main Reasons for Bottlenecks

• Equipment challenges and adverse weather conditions ensured operational disruptions in Cape Town, while similar delays prevented optimal performance in Durban.
• More than 40 operational hours were conceded at our Eastern Cape Ports due to strong winds.

Impact on Freight Rates

• The primary index we track, the Drewry “World Container Index”, ticked up by ↑2,2% (or $36) to $1 687 per 40-ft container this week, marking the first rise after 17 consecutive weeks of decline.14.
• The Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) recorded a much sharper move, increasing by around ↑13% week-onweek, although the lack of underlying cargo volume casts doubt on the sustainability of that uptick.15
• The massive divide between spot rates and charter rates has also finally begun to move back closer to each other, as the Harper Petersen Index (Harpex) was down again last week and is now trading around 2 185 points on Friday, which is ↓1,4% below the peak achieved during the second week of September.
• Linerlytica further highlighted the fragile balance in global container flows, noting that operational bottlenecks, particularly in Europe and Asia, could quickly reverse recent stabilisation trends in freight rates
• Carriers announced new general rate increases (GRIs) and surcharges – ostensibly to offset rising port and handling costs – adding uncertainty for shippers already contending with fluctuating freight indices and soft underlying demand.

Outlook

• Ongoing geopolitical and operational tensions have persisted.
• Global ocean freight continues to be typified by both structural realignments and growing uncertainty across regulatory and market dimensions.

Customer advice 

Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please: 

• Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
• Think ahead and book well in advance. Try to plan for 6 months ++. 
• Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
• Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.
• Plan 3–4 weeks in advance for all Asia-related cargo.
• Consider alternative European gateways or routings where feasible.
• Maintain flexible delivery schedules to absorb delays.
• Stay engaged for tactical rate and space guidance.

However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.

Stay informed & Contact us

CONTACT US            air freight report - October 2025            find an office