Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
South America
Middle East
South Africa

Summary of the ocean freight market update in August

“Further gradual decline means spot rates are moving closer to pre-Red Sea crisis levels. The last time we saw rates this low prior to escalation in the Red Sea, carriers were posting big losses. Carriers may still make big bucks in 2025 overall, but this profit will have been made during the volatility earlier in the year, with Q4 returning to loss-making in isolation. “Shippers have been battered by higher freight costs and tariffs during 2024 and 2025, with average spot rates from Far East to US East Coast almost touching USD 10,000 per FEU in July last year. Shippers will not feel too much sympathy for carriers now the situation is turning back in their favor. “It is important shippers do not look back in anger at the higher freight rates they paid, they cannot recoup this money. Instead, they should be looking forward to the next tender season as an opportunity to strike a better freight rate as well as enhanced service delivery.” (Xeneta)

Asia-Europe freight rates have seen bigger slides in the past week with space constraints easing as peak season demand have passed. The port congestion in North Europe that has provided some rate supposed has also improved slightly with yard utilization starting to trend down from critical levels in Antwerp and at some of the terminals in Rotterdam. However, Med port congestion remains high especially at Valencia and Genoa. (Linerlytica)

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) declined for the 11th consecutive week, and we expect it to continue falling in the coming weeks. The unpredictability began after US tariffs were announced in April, which caused rates to surge from May through early June, but they plunged thereafter until mid-July and continued to decline till this week. (Drewry)

President Trump has claimed the authority to bypass Congress and impose sweeping tariffs on foreign products, arguing the import duties are necessary to strengthen the U.S. economy. Now a federal appeals court has thrown a roadblock in his path. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled Friday that Mr. Trump went too far when he declared national emergencies to justify tariffs on nearly every country on Earth. The ruling largely upheld a May decision by a federal trade court in New York. (CBS)

The core structural challenge facing the container industry is a significant and growing oversupply of vessel capacity. The containership orderbook has reached a record high of 10.4 million TEU, which represents 31.7% of the current global fleet—the highest ratio since 2010. This influx of new vessels is causing the fleet to expand at a rate that far outpaces a more cautious forecast for global demand growth. This fundamental mismatch is the primary driver exerting downward pressure on freight rates and is forcing carriers to actively manage capacity through blank sailings and service adjustments to protect pricing floors.

Energy Price - August 2025

20 July 2025 = USD 68.38
20 August 2025 = USD 66.84

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its oil-demand forecast for next year after agreeing to another bumper production hike in a push for market share. The Vienna-based cartel now expects global oil demand to grow by 1.38 million barrels a day in 2026, up from 1.28 million previously, driven by stronger economic activity across key regions. This year’s demand growth is still seen at 1.29 million barrels a day. Global economic growth estimates were also slightly lifted. (WSJ)

USEIA forecasts natural gas consumption in the United States will increase 1% to set a record of 91.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025. In their latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, they expect natural gas consumption to increase across all sectors except for electric power, which had been the source of most natural gas consumption growth in the previous decade. (USEIA)

Energy transition finance is gaining traction as world leaders seek to achieve both energy security and clean energy transitions. The International Energy Agency hosted its first Virtual Workshop on Transition Finance on 22 May 2025, drawing more than 70 participants from industry, government and the financial sector. The event provided a forum to discuss the state of play and the key barriers to scaling up cross-border capital flows that can enable transition efforts. (IEA)

Crude oil will continue to be in demand for a very long time yet, the chief executive of Chevron, Mike Wirth, told the New York Times in an interview. Asked about his take on International Energy Agency predictions of peak oil demand, Wirth said that “First of all, the I.E.A. has not always been right, historically, on things, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the I.E.A. is not right about this.” “Even if they are, once oil demand reaches a level where it’s no longer growing, it’s unlikely to drop off quickly. It’s more likely to stay at a plateau,” the executive added. (Oilprice.com)

Syria and Saudi Arabia inked an agreement and six memorandums of understanding (MoUs) across multiple energy sectors on Thursday, Anadolu reports. The deals cover “various fields of energy” between Riyadh and Damascus, the Saudi broadcaster Al-Ekhbariya reported. According to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), the agreements include cooperation in power projects, transmission and distribution stations, geophysical and geological surveys, oilfield services, drilling, and maintenance of wells. The deals also cover technical training, workforce development, and integrated solutions for oil and gas field management, SANA said. (Middle East Monitor)

Ocean freight trends - Europe

• The European market remains in the grip of a severe and prolonged port congestion crisis. Antwerp is experiencing its worst congestion since the pandemic, with dwell times exceeding nine days and yard utilization above 92%.
• Other major hubs like Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Bremerhaven face delays of 3-5 days with yard utilization at 85-88%.
• The situation in Genoa is so severe that carriers like Maersk are omitting the port throughout August and September, diverting vessels to nearby Vado Ligure.

Main Reasons for Bottlenecks

• Congestion is the primary bottleneck, compounded by several factors.
• The summer holiday period has led to labor shortages across terminals in France and Germany.

• Inland logistics are severely strained by ongoing railway maintenance and closures, particularly in Germany and Italy.
• In Italy, rail services in and out of Genoa are unavailable throughout August, forcing a reliance on trucks and leading to Peak Season Surcharges for inland transport.

Impact on Freight Rates

• Despite the severe operational friction, freight rates from Asia to Europe have been falling through August.
• The growing surplus of vessel capacity is now a stronger force than the congestion, pushing spot rates down. As of late August, Shanghai-Rotterdam rates fell 6% in one week to USD 2,973/FEU.

Outlook

• The congestion crisis is expected to persist, with disruptions likely to continue through at least August.
• Shippers must anticipate continued significant delays, the potential for last-minute port omissions, and softening rate levels.
• Carriers are adjusting rotations to mitigate delays, such as Maersk's AE5 service adding calls in Aarhus and Gothenburg to bypass some of the worst congestion.

Ocean freight trends - Asia Pacific

• The uncertainty due to the unresolved trade talks between the US and China continues to add pressure that makes timing the market very difficult and resulting into dampening of some global economies impacting on market and capacity adjustments.
• Seasonal weather such as the typhoon season is a live variable which is affecting shipping and cargo delays, adding to port congestion woes which are still a phenomenon in some major ports in Asia.

• The Asia market in August is defined by flat, post-frontloading demand, with Southeast Asian ports continuing to show stronger export volumes than those in China. 
• Carriers are now preparing for the Golden Week holiday (1-7 October 2025), with some announcing GRIs and Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) from September onwards. 

Main Reasons for Bottlenecks

Several factors are contributing to bottlenecks in the Asian shipping industry:

• Port Congestion: Weather shocks brought by typhoon and monsoon rains in East and Southeast Asia periodically halt port operations, delays river and feeder movements, and case cargo roll over situations. With vessel bunching in the major ports, this will mean overwhelming container yard terminal utilization and affects productivity.
• Port Klang in Malaysia is experiencing vessel waiting times of up to 70 hours, while Singapore's yard is operating at 95% capacity. In Chittagong, Bangladesh, ships are waiting 6–10 days to dock, and a shortage of locomotives is causing rail cargo to sit for three weeks or more. 
• Geopolitical rerouting: Red Sea security keeps Suez mostly off-limits for container ships and detours tie up ships and container equipment, uplifting fuel and insurance costs, and affecting schedules.

Impact on Freight Rates

• Trans-pacific rates have reduced since early June due to overcapacity. Asia-Europe lanes are still affected by the diversion costs with longer rotations and countermeasures by carriers to add blank sailings to stabilize utilizations. Due to the reduced global demand in Europe, freight rates are lowering. Intra-Asia and short-haul regional routes are stabilizing as these flows are less affected by the global geopolitical disruptions except for some localized imbalances in South China and Southeast Asia experiencing some short-term spot rate surges due to equipment and feeder slots coping with the other factors brought by seasonal weather and congestion consequences.
• Transpacific Eastbound (TPEB): Rates to the U.S. West Coast have fallen below USD 2,000/FEU, approaching pre-Red Sea crisis levels. Rates to the U.S. East Coast have also dropped significantly, down over 17% in the last three weeks of August alone. 
• Far East Westbound (FEWB): Rates to Europe are also softening. After holding firm in July, rates from the Far East to North Europe and the Mediterranean have seen steady declines in August due to a growing surplus of vessel capacity. 

Outlook

• Demand is expected to remain flat through September, with no traditional peak season surge anticipated. Carriers will continue to manage capacity via blank sailings to prevent a rapid rate collapse. A short-lived increase in demand and rates may occur in late September ahead of China's Golden Week holiday.
• On the overall, the freight rate environment in Asia is largely influenced by volatility rather than broad escalation. Supply pressures from the increasing fleet weigh on most trade lanes, while rerouting costs and congestion provide temporary and short-term counterbalances and not expecting huge rates fluctuation. There are sentiments that spot rates may soften further into Q4 while short term GRIs, weather disruptions, or geopolitical escalations could trigger short-term freight rates spikes. 

Ocean freight trends - North America

• The 3.2% year-over-year increase in U.S. inbound container volume for July 2025 represents a temporary reprieve driven entirely by tariff frontloading, according to shipping analyst John McCown. This modest growth masks an impending historic decline in container volumes through the remainder of 2025. “This is a temporary reprieve and was driven by frontloading to get goods in prior to additional tariffs going into effect in early August,” McCown states in his latest report. This downturn represents a structural shift in U.S. maritime trade patterns. (gCaptain)
• According to the latest study by Persistence Market Research, the North America freight and logistics market is projected to grow from USD 1.5 Trillion in 2024 to USD 2.0 Trillion by 2031, reflecting a CAGR of 4.0%. The market is benefiting from rapid advancements in transportation infrastructure, increasing cross-border trade activities, and the exponential growth of e-commerce. North America remains a global logistics hub with highly developed road, rail, sea, and air freight networks that enable efficient domestic and international trade flows.

• The North American container market in August is in a post-frontloading lull, with import volumes dropping sharply after a busy June and July. Projections for the second half of 2025 forecast an overall reduction in U.S. import volumes compared to last year. The market is now grappling with a sweeping new set of tariffs effective in August, including a rate increase to 35% on Canadian goods and the suspension of the de minimis exemption for low-value shipments, which will raise costs and complexity for importers. (THORSTEN)

Main Reasons for Bottlenecks

• While core inland operations are performing well, space into Pacific Northwest ports like Prince Rupert and Vancouver remains tight, with waiting times of up to 7 days. The nationwide truck driver shortage continues to be a structural bottleneck for the entire North American supply chain, constraining inland logistics capacity and increasing costs. (THORSTEN)

Impact on Freight Rates

• Asia-North America spot rates have fallen 60%-70% in an almost uninterrupted slide. Data from the IndexBox platform confirms this downward trend, with rates to the West Coast decreasing 10% last week to USD 1,744 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), their lowest level since December 2023. East Coast prices fell 21% to USD 2,733 per FEU, marking a 34% decline so far in August.
• Drewry’s Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken again in the second half of 2025, which will cause spot rates to contract. The volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on Trump’s future tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain. The phase of accelerated purchasing by US retailers, which induced an early peak season, has ended. In response to a decelerating US economy and increased tariff costs, they are now scaling back on procurement but at a measured pace. (Drewry)

Outlook

• The United States will implement new port entry fees targeting Chinese-linked vessels starting October 14, 2025. Introduced by the US Trade Representative (USTR), the charges will initially begin at USD 50 per net tonne, escalating to USD 140 by 2028, and are aimed at ships that are Chinese-owned, operated, or built. The move is expected to influence global shipping dynamics while reinforcing US maritime interests. For vessels constructed in China but not under Chinese control, a separate fee structure will apply: the greater of USD 18 per net tonne or USD 120 per container from October 2025, rising to USD 33 per tonne or USD 250 per container by 2028. The regulations limit the fees to five vessel calls per year, applying only once per inbound voyage, regardless of the number of US ports visited. Exemptions are granted for smaller vessels and certain short-haul operations, potentially softening the impact for some operators. (Maritime Gateway)
• Rates on the Transpacific trade are expected to continue their downward trend as demand remains weak and carriers struggle to manage overcapacity. There is no traditional peak season expected in 2025 to support prices. The market is now watching for a potential short-lived surge in late September before China's Golden Week holiday. (THORSTEN)

Ocean freight trends - South America

• Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) announced the launch of its new maritime service, "Alpaca," which will begin operations in September 2025 with direct call from Asia and South America.
• The full rotation of the service is as follows:
  • Ningbo (CN) – Busan (KR) – Callao (PE) – Arica (CL) – Iquique (CL) – San Antonio (CL) –Nansha (CN) – Hong Kong (CN) – Ningbo (CN)
• The Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) will provide R$40 billion in credit under the Sovereign Brazil Plan to support the Brazilian export sector affected by the tariff measures imposed by the United States government. R$30 billion will come from the Export Guarantee Fund (FGE) and R$10 billion from the Bank itself. The resources will finance working capital and investments in adapting production activities, acquiring machinery and equipment, and seeking new markets.

• "The priority is incentivized credit for all companies that have suffered an abrupt and irreversible loss of export capacity, and that have lost more than 5% of their revenue," explained BNDES President Aloizio Mercadante at a press conference at the Bank's headquarters in Rio. "Those who have lost more than 5% are the priority at this time. For these companies, President Lula's government, through the BNDES, will open incentivized credit lines worth R$30 billion." (BNDES)
• The South America trade lane from the Far East is experiencing the sharpest decline in spot rates globally. Since the end of July, rates have fallen by 18.3%. This follows a period where carriers significantly reduced blank sailings in July, increasing available capacity. There is a growing strategic focus on digitalization and enhanced supply chain visibility as essential tools for managing the area's inherent logistical and regulatory complexities. 

Main Reasons for Bottlenecks

• The primary reasons for potential bottlenecks in the September Q3 2025 shipping market are geopolitical disruptions like Red Sea conflicts forcing reroutes, seasonal peak demand for goods as retailers stock up, carrier capacity management through blank sailings, and the potential impact of new trade policies and tariffs that can shift import/export volumes. These factors contribute to port congestion, extended transit times, and a general strain on supply chain capacity, making space and stability uncertain.
• Some terminals on the West Coast of South America are experiencing difficulties due to heavy seasonal rains. In Central America, ports like Santo Tomas and Puerto Cortes are also facing some operational challenges. 

Impact on Freight Rates

• Hapag Lloyd will apply a General Rate Increase (GRI)/General Rate Adjustment (GRA) from Far East Baseports to East Coast of South America Baseports is coming up. This GRI/GRA adjustment is applicable to all containers gated in full from September 1, 2025, and is valid until further notice. This adjustment reflects an increase of USD 500 per container and is applicable to entire Far East to East Coast of South America (base ports and outports).
• Spot rates from Asia to the East Coast of South America (ECSA), which had spiked dramatically in late June, began to soften into August as the new capacity entered the trade. The trend has accelerated, with the lane now seeing the most significant rate drops of any major trade route. 

Outlook

• Ongoing global conflicts and political uncertainty remain significant risks, impacting trade flows and logistics networks, with carriers adapting to capacity shifts.
• While U.S. tariff clarity is expected, there's a risk of new or extended tariffs, requiring businesses to monitor policy changes and assess their supply chain impact.
• For the near term, capacity and demand across the region are expected to be roughly balanced. The market is likely to experience continued downward pressure on rates as the reduction in blank sailings translates to more available space. (THORSTEN)

Ocean freight trends - Middle East

• Although the Suez Canal remains technically open, the renewed security risks in the Red Sea following deadly attacks in July mean most major carriers continue to divert their vessels around Africa. Operations in most ports like Jebel Ali and Ashdod are stable, and the Strait of Hormuz remains navigable. The region's freight and logistics market is poised for strong growth, projected to be valued at USD 173.27 billion in 2025. 

Main Reasons for Bottlenecks

• Security chokepoints:
  • Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb: renewed attacks and counter strikes raise deviation and insurance costs.
  • Gulf of Hormuz: elevated rhetoric has lifted marine war-risk pricing across the Gulf.
  • The renewed Houthi attacks have made a return to Red Sea transits unlikely for the rest of 2025. Increased security measures at ports in the Eastern Mediterranean, such as Ashdod and Haifa, are causing vessel schedule delays. 
• Weather/operations:
  • India’s monsoon intermittently halted terminals at Nhava Sheva in Aug Mundra’s empty depots saw flooding-related disruption in July.
  • Sri Lanka (Colombo): seasonal congestion; some feeders and transshipment legs face 1–2-week delays.
• Hub congestion spillovers: Singapore backlog (yard ~95%) continues to ripple into Indian feeder schedules.
• Equipment balance: Indian shippers continue to flag low empty availability , risking missed sailings for exports.

Impact on Freight Rates

• Index tone: ME/India legs remain buffered by detours, port congestion, and surcharges.
• Surcharges: Carriers pushed PSS on ISC/ME corridors (e.g., Hapag-Lloyd USD 1,000/ctnr to North America; Maersk PSS updates in Aug). Expect these on quotes from India/ME origins.
• Fuel & insurance costs: VLSFO indicative spot hovered near Fujairah ~USD 493/mt and Singapore ~USD 498/mt ; war-risk premiums up materially after July incidents
• Lane specifics:
  • India/ME → Europe: still elevated vs. pre-crisis due to Cape routing and transshipment queues; less downside than trans-Pac.
  • India/ME → North America: softening broader trend offset by PSS and longer routings; net effect = stable to slightly down Month on Month into late Aug.
  • Intra-ME/ISC & ISC→GCC: improved service options (new MSC loop) help capacity, but ad-hoc delays from weather and hubs keep spot quotes choppy.
• The market is showing signs of firming on specific trade lanes. Carriers have announced GRIs for shipments originating from the Middle East and Gulf region destined for Oceania. For example, ANL introduced a GRI of $400 per TEU, effective July 23, signaling confidence in their ability to raise prices on this corridor. Maersk is also introducing an Operational Cost Imports (OCI) surcharge for all containers from the world to Jebel Ali, UAE, effective August 15, 2025. 

Outlook

• Rates: Mildly firm on India/ME–Europe (capacity withdrawals + detours), softer on India/ME–North America as trans-Pac weakness leaks into network tempered by PSS and war-risk costs.
• Volumes: Expect pre-festive restocking (ahead of two major festivals in India Dussehra & Diwali in Oct) to support India export flows, particularly electronics, textiles, and FMCG.
• Operations: Monsoon impacts should gradually ease into late Sept, improving schedule integrity at west-coast India; need to watch Singapore/Colombo for lingering queues.
• Risk watch: Any escalation around Yemen/Red Sea or Hormuz can rapidly reprice war-risk and transit plans; assume sustained Suez avoidance by most mainlines into Q4 unless risk subsides materially.
• The market remains on high alert. While day-to-day operations are currently stable in most areas, the security situation is fluid and can change with little notice. Shippers should maintain close and frequent communication with their logistics partners to stay informed of the latest operational advisories and should anticipate continued volatility in both scheduling and pricing. 

Ocean freight trends - South Africa

• An average of ~14,168 TEUs was handled per day, with ~12,581 TEUs projected for next week.
• TNPA July: containers are up by ↑17% (m/m) and ↑30% (y/y). Total bulk: ↓8% (m/m) & ↑3% (y/y).
• Rail cargo handled out of Durban was reported at 5,619 containers, up by ↑105% from last week.
• Cross-border queue: ↑0,2 hrs; transit: ↑0,1 hrs; SA borders: ~9,3 hrs (↓12%); SADC: ~4,7 hrs (↑7%).
• Global spot rates: down for a 9th straight week (↓3,1%, or USD 74) to USD 2,350/40ft. Charter: ↑11% (y/y).
• IATA: global cargo up by ↑0,8% (y/y) for June. More frequent: tonnages ↓2% (w/w) and rates up (↑1%).

• The major development impacting South Africa in August is the implementation of a new 30% general tariff on all products imported into the U.S., effective August 7. This is in addition to existing sectoral tariffs on automotive goods (25%) and metals (50%). The country's citrus export season is in full swing, with export estimates revised sharply upward due to strong demand and favorable conditions. Many growers successfully accelerated shipments to the U.S. ahead of the tariff deadline, lessening the immediate impact. Port performance has generally improved in 2025, with increased equipment and new management strategies helping to move cargo more efficiently. 

Main Reasons for Bottlenecks

• Port operations were disrupted by weather, vacant berths, equipment issues, and staff engagements. Cape Town faced constraints from faulty reefers, Durban experienced delays from high swells and equipment challenges, and Eastern Cape Ports saw disruptions, though minimal delays occurred at Richards Bay.
• NCT facilitated shift engagements on 13, 15, 18, and 19 August for all four shifts, which negatively impacted operations
• The latest reports from TFR suggest that cable theft occurred on the line between City Deep and Mafikeng during the earlier stages of the week, as well as on the line between Pretoria and Durban towards the end of the week
• Truck volumes through the border post were 1,526 HGVs per day (↓4%, w/w). Queue times increased to an average of 6,8 hours (↑17%) at the border, mainly because of long queues on the N4 and road rehabilitation
• Other developments of note include (1) Zimbabwe’s anti-smuggling unit disruptions and (2) DRC protests.

Impact on Freight Rates

• Spot freight rates fell for a ninth straight week, although the charter market continues to defy the downturn with resilient demand across several key corridors
• Container markets remain volatile: the US is experiencing ‘trade whiplash’ from tariff-driven front-loading earlier in the year, while congestion and blank sailings remain stable
• With over 1 million TEU of deliveries still due in 2025, the supply imbalance is unlikely to ease soon
• While global spot rates have fallen for nine consecutive weeks, freight rates on the Asia–South Africa trade lane are moving in the opposite direction due to high demand and constrained capacity. Carriers have implemented substantial Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) of up to USD 1,000 per 40ft container.

Outlook

• Container throughput is now up versus last year (↑0,3%) and only ↓2,1% below 2019 levels
• It is evident that South Africa’s container ports are finally turning a corner. Transnet Port Terminals deserves commendation for recent throughput improvements (including a post-COVID record of 18,689 TEUs on Week 20, Day 4) – a reflection of greater equipment reliability, operational coordination, and stakeholder alignment
• The system is working better, and that matters. These green shoots of progress should be celebrated as hard-won victories after a long period of disruption. But they also bring us closer to existing capacity limits. Without structural reform, infrastructure upgrades, and a stable policy environment, momentum may stall
• South Africa must now seize the opportunity to invest meaningfully and unlock longterm growth. As a globally integrated, trade-dependent economy, we must remain competitive, agile, and open for business – with ports that reflect those ambitions
• The situation is expected to remain challenging. While port operations have improved, the system is still under strain from the citrus peak season and rerouted global traffic. The full impact of the new U.S. tariffs will be felt more acutely in the next export season if a new trade deal is not reached. Shippers must factor in buffer times and prepare for continued high costs. 

Customer advice 

Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please: 

• Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
• Think ahead and book well in advance. Try to plan for 6 months ++. 
• Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
• Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.
• Plan 3–4 weeks in advance for all Asia-related cargo.
• Consider alternative European gateways or routings where feasible.
• Maintain flexible delivery schedules to absorb delays.
• Stay engaged for tactical rate and space guidance.

However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.

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