Middle East Situation Update: Escalation Risk for Shipping

We would like to inform you about the Middle East Situation Update: Escalation Risk for Shipping, as of June 16, 2025. As your trusted logistics partner, it is our priority to ensure transparency and provide strategic insights to help you navigate this complex environment.

Escalation Between Israel and Iran

Israel has launched coordinated airstrikes against nuclear-related facilities in Iran, as well as against senior Iranian military personnel. In direct response, Iran initiated a drone attack targeting Israeli territory — confirming the expected retaliation.

Maritime Impact Assessment

As of now, there is no confirmed targeting of commercial shipping by Iranian forces. However, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) warns of the potential for rapid escalation, including possible involvement from Iran-affiliated non-state actors such as the Houthis.

While a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not currently on the table, there is a real risk of a partial or de-facto disruption, similar to tactics seen in the Southern Red Sea.

Key Risks for Container Shipping:

Fuel Cost Surge

• Crude oil prices spiked over 9% immediately following the Israeli strikes.
• Futures have risen 13%, potentially affecting bunker costs and linehaul pricing short-term.

Routing & Network Disruption

• Should major carriers begin avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, container hubs inside the Persian Gulf — such as Jebel Ali and Port Khalifa — could face substantial impact.
• Consequences would likely include overflow to alternate transshipment hubs in South and Southeast Asia, with rising risk of congestion and schedule reliability degradation.

Regional Trade Connectivity Risk

• Countries reliant on Strait access — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq — could face major shipping delays or service suspensions.
• Non-aligned carriers may attempt to cover displaced volumes, similar to the Red Sea workaround model, though this would again stretch capacity and pressure origin port infrastructure in Asia.

Security Considerations

Iran has a recent precedent for interfering with commercial shipping — notably, the seizure of the 14,000 TEU MSC Aries in 2024, which remains detained.

Disinformation Advisory

• Multiple unverified social media posts claim a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These are currently false.
• Viral images alleging destruction of Haifa Port are misattributed. Latest reports confirm that Adani’s Haifa terminal and the nearby Chinese-operated SIPG terminal handled eight vessels on Sunday and remain fully operational.
• ZIM Lines reports continued operations in Haifa and Ashdod without disruption.

GPS Interference

Reports of extensive GPS jamming in the wider conflict region continue. Navigational resilience and readiness for alternative routing is advised.

Verification Guidance

• The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) — part of the Combined Maritime Forces coalition of 46 nations — recommends companies conduct thorough verification before acting on unconfirmed reports.
• JMIC is led by a U.S. commander with a U.K. deputy and focuses on countering non-state maritime threats.

Looking Ahead

As your logistics partner, we remain committed to helping you adapt to the shifting trade environment. Whether facing prolonged friction or gradual normalization, we are prepared to provide flexible and cost-effective logistics solutions that align with your business priorities.

For any inquiries regarding our Middle East Situation Update, or to receive tailored support for your trade lanes, please contact your Account Manager or reach out directly to Thorsten Diephaus, our Global Head of Container Freight Procurement. We are here to support you with reliable, up-to-date guidance.

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