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Global Market Contagion and Strategic Revenue Recovery Plan during Middle East Conflict

Following the military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and subsequent retaliatory actions, the logistics landscape in the Persian Gulf has entered a state of emergency. This briefing outlines the operational realities and the global market "contagion" effect.

Ocean Freight: Carrier Status & Strategic Rerouting

All major alliances have suspended transit through the Strait of Hormuz. We are seeing a structural shift from sea to land-bridge operations, which will operate mainly for named account contracts, but we see massive problems to place any spot term booking to and from Middle East.

Please reach out to your local Bertling office to check the individual bookings.

Carrier

Action Taken

Primary Alternative Hubs

Surcharge Status

Maersk Full Hormuz Suspension Salalah (Oman), Colombo $1,800–$4,000 (EFI)
MSC Total Booking Stop Holding in "Safe Shelter" Emergency War Risk
CMA CGM Immediate Diversion Khor Fakkan, Fujairah $2,000–$4,000 (ECS)
COSCO

Suspension/Shelter

Evaluating Oman/Red Sea War Risk (WRS)
ONE Full Booking Stop Colombo, Salalah Emergency Recovery
Evergreen Cape Route Only Transshipment via Asia Conflict Surcharge
Hapag-Lloyd Operational Adjustments. Diverting the IMX service via the Cape. no alternative discharge ports have been designated at this stage. -

Global Trade Contagion: Impact Beyond the Middle East

Even trades not directly touching the Persian Gulf will face significant disruption and cost "uplifts":

  • FAK Rate Increases: We expect carriers to aggressively raise Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates globally (e.g., Transpacific and Asia-Latin America) and witnessed this on Asia to Europe trade already.
  • Global Surcharge Implementation: Carriers will likely implement "Peak Season" or "Emergency Contingency" surcharges across all lanes to offset the systemic cost of network reorganization.
  • Global BAF/Bunker Spikes: As crude oil prices soar toward $120/barrel, the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) will increase across all global trades, not just those in the conflict zone.
  • Equipment Shortage (Container Imbalance): As containers remain stuck on diverted vessels or "terminated" at alternative ports like Salalah, we anticipate a global equipment crunch. Empty containers will not return to origin hubs (China/Southeast Asia) on time, leading to scarcity and further rate hikes.

Legal & Financial Exposure: "Cargo Owner Account"

Under standard "Liberty Clauses" and BIMCO provisions, carriers are terminating voyages at alternative ports.

  • Cost Liability: Once a carrier terminates at a safe port due to war risk, the contract is fulfilled. All subsequent costs—storage, transshipment, and "last-mile" trucking—are for the Cargo Owner’s account.

CONTACT US

Please contact our expert for further advice. We will keep you closely informed.

Thorsten Diephaus

Global Head Container Freight Procurement

P: +49 40 3233550
M: +49 173 701 8158
E: thorsten.diephaus@bertling.com

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