After a volatile June, July brought some signs of short-term stabilization, though uncertainty still defines the global air freight market. Spot rates remained under pressure across key lanes, while capacity stayed ahead of demand. Regional disruptions, continued trade disputes, and geopolitical tensions kept the market environment unpredictable. Most forwarders and shippers are maintaining a cautious stance going into Q3.
Consumer Spending Caution Puts Pressure on Air Cargo Volumes
Spot rates for air freight continued to decline in July as consumer demand softened, particularly for discretionary goods. Although global cargo volumes held relatively steady year-on-year, capacity outpaced demand for the second consecutive month. The imbalance between supply and demand is contributing to rate erosion across several major trade lanes. Market analysts observe that cost-conscious consumer behavior - driven by inflation and economic uncertainty is prompting shippers to reduce volumes and adjust shipment timing, leading to a more selective and reactive air cargo environment.
Global Forecasts for Air Freight Growth Adjusted Amid Trade Policy Shifts
The outlook for air cargo in the second half of 2025 has been revised downward as trade policy developments and economic indicators continue to challenge volume recovery. Updated forecasts suggest only marginal annual growth in air freight tonnage, while revenue projections have been reduced in light of cooling demand and changing import/export rules. New tariff measures and changes to customs thresholds are affecting e-commerce flows and reducing shipment frequency in some markets. Businesses are increasingly prioritizing flexible, short-term planning to navigate the evolving regulatory landscape.
Key Trends
- Spot rates largely flat or slightly down month-on-month despite strong summer volumes
- Capacity continues to exceed demand, pushing rates downward in many lanes
- Trade policy uncertainty impacting contract strategies and inventory planning
- Stable transatlantic market but ongoing softness in the Asia–US lane
- Middle East disruption effects lingering, with some transit time delays still present
Main Reasons for Bottlenecks
- Airspace restrictions and flight rerouting in the Middle East
- Contract hesitations and short-term bookings due to tariff uncertainty
- Selective airport congestion driven by uneven demand spikes
- Inventory backlogs in Asia following earlier shipment frontloading
Impact on Freight Rates
- July saw continued rate softening across major Asia–Europe and Asia–US corridors
- Rates on the transpacific lane have dropped below last year’s levels by nearly 10%
- European exports have held up better, particularly on routes to Asia
- Overall average global rate remained below USD 2.40/kg by mid-July
- Market volatility remains high, with weekly rate swings on certain corridors
Outlook
- Market expected to remain rate-driven as shippers secure short-term savings
- Any resolution or escalation in ongoing trade disputes could cause sudden shifts
- Risk of capacity tightening toward late Q3 if emergency demand increases
- Forwarders should prepare for possible cost hikes if Middle East instability worsens
- Pricing strategies may need to be reassessed frequently throughout August
Customer advice
Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please:
- Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
- Think ahead and book well in advance. Try to plan for 6 months ++.
- Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
- Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.
However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.
