Global air cargo volumes have shown resilience amid ongoing trade uncertainty, shifting tariffs, and short-term operational disruptions. July saw a year-on-year increase in demand, reflecting airfreight’s strategic role for time-sensitive shipments. August volumes continued the upward trend, growing +5% year-over-year, highlighting the strong demand for reliable, fast transport despite market uncertainties. Mid-August experienced temporary dips due to national holidays and regional operational challenges, while the end of the U.S. low-value tariff exemption introduces additional costs and administrative requirements for e-commerce and small parcel shipments.
Air Freight Volumes Rise +5% YoY Despite Trade Uncertainty
Air cargo volumes grew +5% year-on-year in July, driven by shippers seeking faster, reliable transport in the face of trade policy uncertainty. August continued this growth, also showing a +5% increase YoY, demonstrating airfreight’s continued value for companies responding to tariff volatility and logistical challenges.
Mid-August Volumes Dip Amid Holidays and Operational Disruptions
Global air cargo volumes fell sharply during mid-August, mainly due to national holidays in Japan and Europe, and operational disruptions such as regional flight cancellations. Despite the temporary decline, spot rates remained broadly stable, reflecting overall market resilience.
U.S. Low-Value Tariff Exemption Ends, Raising Costs for E-Commerce
The end of the U.S. de minimis exemption for packages under $800 means all international parcels are now subject to tariffs. This change increases costs, adds customs paperwork, and may affect small businesses and online marketplaces. Express carriers are better equipped to handle these changes, while postal services in some regions have temporarily paused certain shipments.
Key Trends
- Airfreight is increasingly used to mitigate delays and circumvent tariff uncertainty.
- Forwarders specializing in verticals such as semiconductors, perishables, healthcare, and cloud infrastructure are navigating the market more effectively.
- Customs and regulatory support are critical services as trade policies continue to evolve.
Main Reasons for Bottlenecks
- Regional public holidays causing short-term drops in volume.
- Labor strikes and operational disruptions affecting flight schedules.
- Sudden regulatory changes, including tariffs and customs adjustments, creating additional documentation requirements.
Impact on Freight Rates
- Spot rates remain relatively stable despite fluctuating volumes.
- Regional differences exist: slight declines from Asia Pacific, stable rates to Europe, and small increases on transatlantic lanes.
- Forwarders may see temporary rate volatility on charter flights as shippers respond to time-sensitive demand.
Outlook
- Market volatility is expected to continue through the end of 2025, driven by trade policy, tariffs, and operational uncertainties.
- Airfreight remains a reliable solution for high-priority shipments, while forwarders continue to adapt to shifting trade patterns.
- Supply chains will require careful planning and flexibility to manage disruptions effectively.
Customer advice
Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please:
- Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
- Think ahead and book well in advance. Try to plan for 6 months ++.
- Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
- Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.
- However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.
